Will AI replace extruding and drawing machine setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic?

Unlikely, though parts of the work are changing. About 1h 41m of an 8-hour shift goes to tasks touched by robots. The other 6h 19m (79%) stays with people. Separately, BLS expects about 0.7% more of these jobs by 2035 (all jobs: +3.5%).

None of this job's tasks show regular AI use yet. That can mean the work is hands-on or in person, or simply that it rarely comes up in AI usage data.

For some tasks, yes. Robots have done 2 of this job's tasks in workplaces like this one, about 1h 41m of a typical shift. 10 more tasks have only been done in factory setups built around the machine, so they stay with people here. For 3 physical tasks, no robot has shown it can do the work yet.

• Measure and examine extruded products to locate defects and to check for conformance to specifications, adjusting controls as necessary to alter products. (1h 29m a shift; e.g. SIKORA X-RAY 6000 PRO at Wuxi Huacheng Cable, in use)
• Maintain an inventory of materials. (12m a shift; e.g. Corvus One Autonomous Inventory Management System, in use)

6h 19m of a typical shift, or 79%, goes to tasks with no AI or robot evidence yet. No AI usage or robot deployment has shown up for these so far. The biggest:

• Start machines and set controls to regulate vacuum, air pressure, sizing rings, and temperature, and to synchronize speed of extrusion. (47m a shift)
• Reel extruded products into rolls of specified lengths and weights. (41m a shift)
• Troubleshoot, maintain, and make minor repairs to equipment. (41m a shift)
• Clean work areas. (36m a shift)
• Install dies, machine screws, and sizing rings on machines that extrude thermoplastic or metal materials. (30m a shift)

Much of it comes down to where and how the work happens. In-person, hands-on and high-stakes work is where AI and robots have made the least headway so far. In the official O*NET survey of people in this job:

• 86% spend more than half the day walking or moving
• 66% use their hands on tools, objects or controls more than half the time
• 53% work at arm's length or closer to other people

On Indeed, job postings in the Production & Manufacturing sector are at 124% of their February 2020 level (all U.S. postings: 104%), up 12.6% from a year earlier, as of Oct 9, 2026. BLS separately expects about 5,400 openings a year in this job through 2035. Across all U.S. postings, 7.3% now mention AI skills. Sector postings cover more than this one job and move for many reasons besides AI.

The median pay is about $47,720 a year ($22.94 an hour), 6% below the median for all U.S. jobs ($50,980). Most people in this job earn between $36,700 and $63,710 a year; that range covers the middle 80%. Pay figures are from BLS, May 2025, and vary a lot by state and employer. Pick a state to compare:

BLS projects growth of 0.7% from 2025 to 2035, compared with 3.5% growth for all jobs. That's about 61,000 jobs in 2035. It expects about 5,400 openings a year, mostly from people retiring or changing careers. These projections don't single out AI as a cause.

About 61,000 people in the U.S., roughly 0.04% of all workers (BLS, May 2025). That makes it the 353rd largest of the 796 jobs on this site. BLS expects about 61,000 in 2035.

The most common requirement is a high school diploma: about 85% of people in the job said so in the official O*NET survey. O*NET rates the job at level 2 of 5 for preparation, which usually means: high school diploma, some training. Requirements vary by state and employer, especially for licensed work.

These come from the job's official skill ratings and from the tasks that AI and robots touch least today. Building them keeps you strong in the parts of the work that still need a person:

• Skills that matter more here than in most jobs: Operation and Control, Operations Monitoring, Troubleshooting, Quality Control Analysis
• Get strong at the parts of the job that stay with people (listed above), which take 6h 19m of a typical shift
• Tools employers list: Microsoft Excel, Microsoft Office software, Microsoft Outlook, Microsoft PowerPoint, Microsoft Word

These use similar skills, with less of a typical shift touched by AI or robots. Matches come from 109 official ratings of skills, knowledge and work activities, and each needs the same or less preparation unless the official list relates the jobs directly:

• Grinding, Lapping, Polishing, and Buffing Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic (0m touched, $47k median pay)
• Electrical and Electronic Equipment Assemblers (48m touched, $46k median pay)
• Rolling Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic (1h 4m touched, $50k median pay)
• Woodworking Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders (12m touched, $43k median pay)
• Electromechanical Equipment Assemblers (0m touched, $46k median pay)

Each task carries its own evidence label. For this job: 2 with robots in real deployments, 14 with no AI or robot evidence found. The minutes per task are estimates, not measured hours, and "no evidence" doesn't prove a task is safe.