Will AI replace first-line supervisors of material-moving machine and vehicle operators?

Unlikely, though parts of the work are changing. About 48m of an 8-hour shift goes to tasks touched by robots. The other 7h 12m (90%) stays with people.

None of this job's tasks show regular AI use yet. That can mean the work is hands-on or in person, or simply that it rarely comes up in AI usage data.

For some tasks, yes. Robots have done 2 of this job's tasks in workplaces like this one, about 48m of a typical shift. 2 more tasks have only been done in factory setups built around the machine, so they stay with people here. For 1 physical task, no robot has shown it can do the work yet.

• Drive vehicles or operate machines or equipment to complete work assignments or to assist workers. (32m a shift; e.g. Fox Robotics FoxBot autonomous forklift, in use)
• Assist workers in tasks, such as loading vehicles. (16m a shift; e.g. Boston Dynamics Stretch, in use)

7h 12m of a typical shift, or 90%, goes to tasks with no AI or robot evidence yet. No AI usage or robot deployment has shown up for these so far. The biggest:

• Monitor field work to ensure proper performance and use of materials. (43m a shift)
• Direct workers in transportation or related services, such as pumping, moving, storing, or loading or unloading of materials. (43m a shift)
• Confer with customers, supervisors, contractors, or other personnel to exchange information or to resolve problems. (37m a shift)
• Plan work assignments and equipment allocations to meet transportation, operations or production goals. (37m a shift)
• Review orders, production schedules, blueprints, or shipping or receiving notices to determine work sequences and material shipping dates, types, volumes, or destinations. (32m a shift)

Much of it comes down to where and how the work happens. In-person, hands-on and high-stakes work is where AI and robots have made the least headway so far. In the official O*NET survey of people in this job:

• 92% are in constant contact with other people
• 89% say dealing with the public is very or extremely important
• 89% handle conflict at least once a week

On Indeed, job postings in the Logistic Support sector are at 119% of their February 2020 level (all U.S. postings: 104%), up 5.1% from a year earlier, as of Oct 9, 2026. Across all U.S. postings, 7.3% now mention AI skills. Sector postings cover more than this one job and move for many reasons besides AI.

The median pay is about $62,840 a year ($30.21 an hour), 23% above the median for all U.S. jobs ($50,980). Most people in this job earn between $43,350 and $96,100 a year; that range covers the middle 80%. Pay figures are from BLS, May 2025, and vary a lot by state and employer.

About 633,000 people in the U.S., roughly 0.41% of all workers (BLS, May 2025). That makes it the 65th largest of the 796 jobs on this site.

The most common requirement is a high school diploma: about 30% of people in the job said so in the official O*NET survey. O*NET rates the job at level 3 of 5 for preparation, which usually means: vocational school or associate's degree. Requirements vary by state and employer, especially for licensed work.

These come from the job's official skill ratings and from the tasks that AI and robots touch least today. Building them keeps you strong in the parts of the work that still need a person:

• Skills that matter more here than in most jobs: Management of Personnel Resources, Time Management, Coordination, Negotiation
• Get strong at the parts of the job that stay with people (listed above), which take 7h 12m of a typical shift
• Tools employers list: SAP software, Microsoft PowerPoint, Microsoft Outlook, Microsoft Office software, Microsoft Excel

These use similar skills, with less of a typical shift touched by AI or robots. Matches come from 109 official ratings of skills, knowledge and work activities, and each needs the same or less preparation unless the official list relates the jobs directly:

• Aircraft Cargo Handling Supervisors (0m touched, $58k median pay)
• First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers (11m touched, $74k median pay)

Each task carries its own evidence label. For this job: 2 with robots in real deployments, 20 with no AI or robot evidence found. The minutes per task are estimates, not measured hours, and "no evidence" doesn't prove a task is safe.