Will AI replace medical transcriptionists?

Some tasks are already being done by AI or machines; the rest still needs a person. About 5h 26m of a typical shift is made up of tasks that AI or robots have done on their own in real use somewhere. That doesn't mean those hours are automated in a typical workplace. The other 2h 34m (32%) stays with people. Separately, BLS expects about 4.4% fewer of these jobs by 2035 (all jobs: +3.5%).

AI shows up regularly in 5 of 15 tasks, about 5h 26m of a typical shift. The biggest ones:

• Transcribe dictation for a variety of medical reports, such as patient histories, physical examinations, emergency room visits, operations, chart reviews, consultation, or discharge summaries. (2h 40m a shift, AI mostly does it alone)
• Review and edit transcribed reports or dictated material for spelling, grammar, clarity, consistency, and proper medical terminology. (2h a shift, AI mostly does it alone)
• Produce medical reports, correspondence, records, patient-care information, statistics, medical research, and administrative material. (20m a shift, AI mostly does it alone)
• Perform data entry and data retrieval services, providing data for inclusion in medical records and for transmission to physicians. (20m a shift, AI mostly does it alone)
• Take dictation using shorthand, a stenotype machine, or headsets and transcribing machines. (7m a shift, AI mostly does it alone)

Not in workplaces like this one, based on a 2026 review of robot deployments. 1 more task has only been done in factory setups built around the machine, so it stays with people here.

2h 34m of a typical shift, or 32%, goes to tasks with no AI or robot evidence yet. No AI usage or robot deployment has shown up for these so far. The biggest:

• Distinguish between homonyms and recognize inconsistencies and mistakes in medical terms, referring to dictionaries, drug references, and other sources on anatomy, physiology, and medicine. (33m a shift)
• Return dictated reports in printed or electronic form for physician's review, signature, and corrections and for inclusion in patients' medical records. (27m a shift)
• Identify mistakes in reports and check with doctors to obtain the correct information. (20m a shift)
• Set up and maintain medical files and databases, including records such as x-ray, lab, and procedure reports, medical histories, diagnostic workups, admission and discharge summaries, and clinical resumes. (20m a shift)
• Translate medical jargon and abbreviations into their expanded forms to ensure the accuracy of patient and health care facility records. (20m a shift)

Much of it comes down to where and how the work happens. In-person, hands-on and high-stakes work is where AI and robots have made the least headway so far. In the official O*NET survey of people in this job:

• 96% talk face to face with others every day
• 76% use their hands on tools, objects or controls more than half the time
• 73% carry high or very high responsibility for other workers' safety

We track 1 sourced company move that affects this job. Most recent:

• Aug 27, 2026: BLS projects 4% drop in medical transcriptionist jobs through 2035 (Forecast)

On Indeed, job postings in the Medical Technician sector are at 125% of their February 2020 level (all U.S. postings: 104%), down 2.6% from a year earlier, as of Oct 9, 2026. BLS separately expects about 6,200 openings a year in this job through 2035. Across all U.S. postings, 7.3% now mention AI skills. Sector postings cover more than this one job and move for many reasons besides AI.

The median pay is about $40,410 a year ($19.43 an hour), 21% below the median for all U.S. jobs ($50,980). Most people in this job earn between $28,250 and $55,950 a year; that range covers the middle 80%. Pay figures are from BLS, May 2025, and vary a lot by state and employer. Pick a state to compare:

BLS projects a decline of 4.4% from 2025 to 2035, compared with 3.5% growth for all jobs. That's about 40,000 jobs in 2035. Even so, it expects about 6,200 openings a year, mostly from people retiring or changing careers. These projections don't single out AI as a cause.

About 42,000 people in the U.S., roughly 0.03% of all workers (BLS, May 2025). That makes it the 416th largest of the 796 jobs on this site. BLS expects about 40,000 in 2035.

The most common requirement is a post-secondary certificate: about 39% of people in the job said so in the official O*NET survey. O*NET rates the job at level 3 of 5 for preparation, which usually means: vocational school or associate's degree. Requirements vary by state and employer, especially for licensed work.

These come from the job's official skill ratings and from the tasks that AI and robots touch least today. Building them keeps you strong in the parts of the work that still need a person:

• Skills that matter more here than in most jobs: Active Listening, Writing, Reading Comprehension, Time Management
• Get strong at the parts of the job that stay with people (listed above), which take 2h 34m of a typical shift
• Tools employers list: Microsoft Office software, eClinicalWorks EHR software, Microsoft Access, Microsoft ASP.NET, Microsoft Excel
• Learn to use AI well on the tasks where it already shows up in this job (listed above)

These use similar skills. Matches come from 109 official ratings of skills, knowledge and work activities, and each needs the same or less preparation unless the official list relates the jobs directly:

• Word Processors and Typists (2h 21m touched, $49k median pay)

Each task carries its own evidence label. For this job: 6 observed in real AI use, 9 with no AI or robot evidence found. The minutes per task are estimates, not measured hours, and "no evidence" doesn't prove a task is safe.