Will AI replace mobile heavy equipment mechanics?

Not on current evidence. Less than 30 minutes of a typical shift goes to tasks that AI or robots are doing today. The other 8h (100%) stays with people. Separately, BLS expects about 6.7% more of these jobs by 2035 (all jobs: +3.5%).

None of this job's tasks show regular AI use yet. That can mean the work is hands-on or in person, or simply that it rarely comes up in AI usage data.

Not in workplaces like this one, based on a 2026 review of robot deployments. 7 more tasks have only been done in factory setups built around the machine, so they stay with people here. For 9 physical tasks, no robot has shown it can do the work yet.

8h of a typical shift, or 100%, goes to tasks with no AI or robot evidence yet. No AI usage or robot deployment has shown up for these so far. The biggest:

• Repair and replace damaged or worn parts. (1h 26m a shift)
• Dismantle and reassemble heavy equipment using hoists and hand tools. (40m a shift)
• Diagnose faults or malfunctions to determine required repairs, using engine diagnostic equipment such as computerized test equipment and calibration devices. (40m a shift)
• Adjust, maintain, and repair or replace subassemblies, such as transmissions and crawler heads, using hand tools, jacks, and cranes. (34m a shift)
• Test mechanical products and equipment after repair or assembly to ensure proper performance and compliance with manufacturers' specifications. (29m a shift)

Much of it comes down to where and how the work happens. In-person, hands-on and high-stakes work is where AI and robots have made the least headway so far. In the official O*NET survey of people in this job:

• 90% use their hands on tools, objects or controls more than half the time
• 87% work in very hot or cold conditions at least weekly
• 85% spend more than half the day on their feet

We track 1 sourced company move that affects this job. Most recent:

• Jan 6, 2026: Caterpillar unveils Cat AI Assistant for troubleshooting and service (Announced)

On Indeed, job postings in the Installation & Maintenance sector are at 118% of their February 2020 level (all U.S. postings: 104%), up 4.1% from a year earlier, as of Oct 9, 2026. BLS separately expects about 15,000 openings a year in this job through 2035. Across all U.S. postings, 7.3% now mention AI skills. Sector postings cover more than this one job and move for many reasons besides AI.

The median pay is about $65,510 a year ($31.50 an hour), 29% above the median for all U.S. jobs ($50,980). Most people in this job earn between $46,820 and $94,460 a year; that range covers the middle 80%. Pay figures are from BLS, May 2025, and vary a lot by state and employer. Pick a state to compare:

BLS projects growth of 6.7% from 2025 to 2035, compared with 3.5% growth for all jobs. That's about 193,000 jobs in 2035. It expects about 15,000 openings a year, mostly from people retiring or changing careers. These projections don't single out AI as a cause.

About 177,000 people in the U.S., roughly 0.11% of all workers (BLS, May 2025). That makes it the 187th largest of the 796 jobs on this site. BLS expects about 193,000 in 2035.

The most common requirement is a post-secondary certificate: about 55% of people in the job said so in the official O*NET survey. O*NET rates the job at level 3 of 5 for preparation, which usually means: vocational school or associate's degree. Requirements vary by state and employer, especially for licensed work.

These come from the job's official skill ratings and from the tasks that AI and robots touch least today. Building them keeps you strong in the parts of the work that still need a person:

• Skills that matter more here than in most jobs: Repairing, Equipment Maintenance, Troubleshooting, Equipment Selection
• Get strong at the parts of the job that stay with people (listed above), which take 8h of a typical shift
• Tools employers list: Microsoft Office software, Microsoft Excel, Microsoft Outlook, Microsoft Word

These use similar skills. Matches come from 109 official ratings of skills, knowledge and work activities, and each needs the same or less preparation unless the official list relates the jobs directly:

• Maintenance and Repair Workers, General (11m touched, $50k median pay)
• Electric Motor, Power Tool, and Related Repairers (0m touched, $56k median pay)
• Motorcycle Mechanics (0m touched, $49k median pay)
• Farm Equipment Mechanics and Service Technicians (34m touched, $57k median pay)
• Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics (0m touched, $51k median pay)

Each task carries its own evidence label. For this job: 20 with no AI or robot evidence found. The minutes per task are estimates, not measured hours, and "no evidence" doesn't prove a task is safe.