Will AI replace umpires, referees, and other sports officials?

Not on current evidence. Less than 30 minutes of a typical shift goes to tasks that AI or robots are doing today. The other 8h (100%) stays with people. Separately, BLS expects about 5.2% more of these jobs by 2035 (all jobs: +3.5%).

None of this job's tasks show regular AI use yet. That can mean the work is hands-on or in person, or simply that it rarely comes up in AI usage data.

Not in workplaces like this one, based on a 2026 review of robot deployments. 2 more tasks have only been done in factory setups built around the machine, so they stay with people here. For 2 physical tasks, no robot has shown it can do the work yet.

8h of a typical shift, or 100%, goes to tasks with no AI or robot evidence yet. No AI usage or robot deployment has shown up for these so far. The biggest:

• Officiate at sporting events, games, or competitions, to maintain standards of play and to ensure that game rules are observed. (2h 58m a shift)
• Signal participants or other officials to make them aware of infractions or to otherwise regulate play or competition. (41m a shift)
• Resolve claims of rule infractions or complaints by participants and assess any necessary penalties, according to regulations. (27m a shift)
• Teach and explain the rules and regulations governing a specific sport. (27m a shift)
• Confer with other sporting officials, coaches, players, and facility managers to provide information, coordinate activities, and discuss problems. (27m a shift)

Much of it comes down to where and how the work happens. In-person, hands-on and high-stakes work is where AI and robots have made the least headway so far. In the official O*NET survey of people in this job:

• 75% work at arm's length or closer to other people
• 71% spend more than half the day on their feet
• 52% handle conflict at least once a week

On Indeed, job postings in the Arts & Entertainment sector are at 87% of their February 2020 level (all U.S. postings: 104%), up 12.4% from a year earlier, as of Oct 9, 2026. BLS separately expects about 4,300 openings a year in this job through 2035. Across all U.S. postings, 7.3% now mention AI skills. Sector postings cover more than this one job and move for many reasons besides AI.

The median pay is about $40,710 a year, 20% below the median for all U.S. jobs ($50,980). Most people in this job earn between $26,540 and $82,960 a year; that range covers the middle 80%. Pay figures are from BLS, May 2025, and vary a lot by state and employer. Pick a state to compare:

BLS projects growth of 5.2% from 2025 to 2035, compared with 3.5% growth for all jobs. That's about 19,000 jobs in 2035. It expects about 4,300 openings a year, mostly from people retiring or changing careers. These projections don't single out AI as a cause.

About 16,000 people in the U.S., roughly 0.01% of all workers (BLS, May 2025). That makes it the 585th largest of the 796 jobs on this site. BLS expects about 19,000 in 2035.

The most common requirement is a high school diploma: about 43% of people in the job said so in the official O*NET survey. O*NET rates the job at level 2 of 5 for preparation, which usually means: high school diploma, some training. Requirements vary by state and employer, especially for licensed work.

These come from the job's official skill ratings and from the tasks that AI and robots touch least today. Building them keeps you strong in the parts of the work that still need a person:

• Skills that matter more here than in most jobs: Learning Strategies, Speaking, Judgment and Decision Making, Active Learning
• Get strong at the parts of the job that stay with people (listed above), which take 8h of a typical shift
• Tools employers list: Adobe Acrobat, Microsoft Excel, Microsoft Office software, Microsoft Outlook, Microsoft PowerPoint

These use similar skills. Matches come from 109 official ratings of skills, knowledge and work activities, and each needs the same or less preparation unless the official list relates the jobs directly:

• Coaches and Scouts (0m touched, $47k median pay)
• Athletes and Sports Competitors (0m touched, $67k median pay)
• Amusement and Recreation Attendants (2h 40m touched, $32k median pay)
• First-Line Supervisors of Entertainment and Recreation Workers (59m touched, $49k median pay)
• Exercise Trainers and Group Fitness Instructors (0m touched, $47k median pay)

Each task carries its own evidence label. For this job: 16 with no AI or robot evidence found. The minutes per task are estimates, not measured hours, and "no evidence" doesn't prove a task is safe.