Will AI replace customs brokers?

Some tasks are already handled by AI or machines; the rest still needs a person. About 2h 25m of an 8-hour shift goes to tasks that AI or robots largely take over. The other 5h 35m (70%) stays with people. Separately, BLS expects about 3.8% more of these jobs by 2035 (all jobs: +3.5%).

AI shows up regularly in 4 of 23 tasks, about 2h 25m of a typical shift. The biggest ones:

• Prepare and process import and export documentation according to customs regulations, laws, or procedures. (1h 50m a shift, AI mostly does it alone)
• Stay abreast of changes in import or export laws or regulations by reading current literature, attending meetings or conferences, or conferring with colleagues. (17m a shift, AI mostly does it alone)
• Monitor or trace the location of goods. (12m a shift, AI mostly does it alone)
• Provide advice on transportation options, types of carriers, or shipping routes. (6m a shift, AI mostly does it alone)

5h 35m of a typical shift, or 70%, goes to tasks with no AI or robot evidence yet. No AI usage or robot deployment has shown up for these so far. The biggest:

• Clear goods through customs and to their destinations for clients. (1h 4m a shift)
• Request or compile necessary import documentation, such as customs invoices, certificates of origin, and cargo-control documents. (40m a shift)
• Classify goods according to tariff coding system. (40m a shift)
• Calculate duty and tariff payments owed on shipments. (35m a shift)
• Advise customers on import and export restrictions, tariff systems, insurance requirements, quotas, or other customs-related matters. (35m a shift)

Much of it comes down to where and how the work happens. In-person, hands-on and high-stakes work is where AI and robots have made the least headway so far. In the official O*NET survey of people in this job:

• 83% talk face to face with others every day
• 75% say dealing with the public is very or extremely important
• 75% are in constant contact with other people

For the 1 task in this job where AI shows up and timing data exists, a typical request takes about 4h 26m for a person alone and about 49m with AI. These are Claude's own estimates from real conversations in April and May 2026 (Anthropic Economic Index). They describe single requests, not whole workdays, and time saved on a task doesn't mean jobs are cut. The biggest gaps:

• Provide advice on transportation options, types of carriers, or shipping routes (about 4h 26m alone, 49m with AI)

On Indeed, job postings in the Management sector are at 104% of their February 2020 level (all U.S. postings: 104%), up 8.3% from a year earlier, as of Oct 9, 2026. BLS separately expects about 33,000 openings a year in this job through 2035. Across all U.S. postings, 7.3% now mention AI skills. Sector postings cover more than this one job and move for many reasons besides AI.

The median pay is about $80,730 a year ($38.81 an hour), 58% above the median for all U.S. jobs ($50,980). Most people in this job earn between $48,220 and $133,720 a year; that range covers the middle 80%. Pay figures are from BLS, May 2025, and vary a lot by state and employer. Pick a state to compare:

BLS projects growth of 3.8% from 2025 to 2035, compared with 3.5% growth for all jobs. That's about 453,000 jobs in 2035. It expects about 33,000 openings a year, mostly from people retiring or changing careers. These projections don't single out AI as a cause.

About 417,000 people in the U.S., roughly 0.27% of all workers (BLS, May 2025). That makes it the 96th largest of the 796 jobs on this site. BLS expects about 453,000 in 2035.

The most common requirement is a high school diploma: about 45% of people in the job said so in the official O*NET survey. O*NET rates the job at level 3 of 5 for preparation, which usually means: vocational school or associate's degree. Requirements vary by state and employer, especially for licensed work.

These come from the job's official skill ratings and from the tasks that AI and robots touch least today. Building them keeps you strong in the parts of the work that still need a person:

• Skills that matter more here than in most jobs: Complex Problem Solving, Active Listening, Writing, Management of Personnel Resources
• Get strong at the parts of the job that stay with people (listed above), which take 5h 35m of a typical shift
• Tools employers list: Microsoft Word, Microsoft PowerPoint, Microsoft Outlook, Microsoft Office software, Microsoft Excel
• Learn to use AI well on the tasks where it already shows up in this job (listed above)

These use similar skills. Matches come from 109 official ratings of skills, knowledge and work activities, and each needs the same or less preparation unless the official list relates the jobs directly:

• Transportation, Storage, and Distribution Managers (1h 50m touched, $107k median pay)
• Procurement Clerks (2h 17m touched, $51k median pay)

Each task carries its own evidence label. For this job: 4 observed in real AI use, 19 with no AI or robot evidence found. The minutes per task are estimates, not measured hours, and "no evidence" doesn't prove a task is safe.