Will AI replace secondary school career/technical education teachers?

Unlikely, though parts of the work are changing. About 1h 32m of an 8-hour shift goes to tasks touched by AI working on its own. The breakdown: 6m done by people with AI help, 1h 26m that AI mostly does alone. The other 6h 28m (81%) stays with people. Separately, BLS expects about 0.4% fewer of these jobs by 2035 (all jobs: +3.5%).

AI shows up regularly in 6 of 33 tasks, about 1h 32m of a typical shift. The biggest ones:

• Observe and evaluate students' performance, behavior, social development, and physical health. (23m a shift, AI mostly does it alone)
• Plan and conduct activities for a balanced program of instruction, demonstration, and work time that provides students with opportunities to observe, question, and investigate. (23m a shift, AI mostly does it alone)
• Prepare, administer, and grade tests and assignments to evaluate students' progress. (17m a shift, AI mostly does it alone)
• Use computers, audio-visual aids, and other equipment and materials to supplement presentations. (11m a shift, AI mostly does it alone)
• Prepare objectives and outlines for courses of study, following curriculum guidelines or requirements of states and schools. (11m a shift, AI mostly does it alone)

Not in workplaces like this one, based on a 2026 review of robot deployments. 1 more task has only been done in factory setups built around the machine, so it stays with people here. For 7 physical tasks, no robot has shown it can do the work yet.

6h 28m of a typical shift, or 81%, goes to tasks with no AI or robot evidence yet. No AI usage or robot deployment has shown up for these so far. The biggest:

• Instruct students individually and in groups, using various teaching methods, such as lectures, discussions, and demonstrations. (1h 20m a shift)
• Instruct students in the knowledge and skills required in a specific occupation or occupational field, using a systematic plan of lectures, discussions, audio-visual presentations, and laboratory, shop, and field studies. (57m a shift)
• Prepare materials and classroom for class activities. (23m a shift)
• Instruct and monitor students in the use and care of equipment and materials to prevent injury and damage. (23m a shift)
• Assign and grade class work and homework. (23m a shift)

Much of it comes down to where and how the work happens. In-person, hands-on and high-stakes work is where AI and robots have made the least headway so far. In the official O*NET survey of people in this job:

• 82% are in constant contact with other people
• 81% work at arm's length or closer to other people
• 61% carry high or very high responsibility for other workers' safety

We track 1 sourced company move that affects this job, including at least one pullback. Most recent:

• Jul 29, 2026: New York school district pauses humanoid robot pilot after backlash (Pulled back)

For the 4 tasks in this job where AI shows up and timing data exists, a typical request takes about 5h 9m for a person alone and about 36m with AI. These are Claude's own estimates from real conversations in April and May 2026 (Anthropic Economic Index). They describe single requests, not whole workdays, and time saved on a task doesn't mean jobs are cut. The biggest gaps:

• Use computers, audio-visual aids, and other equipment and materials to supplement presentations (about 8h 11m alone, 28m with AI)
• Prepare, administer, and grade tests and assignments to evaluate students' progress (about 6h 19m alone, 51m with AI)
• Plan and conduct activities for a balanced program of instruction, demonstration, and work time that provides students with opportunities to observe, question, and investigate (about 3h 58m alone, 35m with AI)

On Indeed, job postings in the Education & Instruction sector are at 107% of their February 2020 level (all U.S. postings: 104%), down 9.5% from a year earlier, as of Oct 9, 2026. BLS separately expects about 6,400 openings a year in this job through 2035. Across all U.S. postings, 7.3% now mention AI skills. Sector postings cover more than this one job and move for many reasons besides AI.

The median pay is about $66,270 a year, 30% above the median for all U.S. jobs ($50,980). Most people in this job earn between $50,040 and $101,340 a year; that range covers the middle 80%. Pay figures are from BLS, May 2025, and vary a lot by state and employer. Pick a state to compare:

BLS projects a decline of 0.4% from 2025 to 2035, compared with 3.5% growth for all jobs. That's about 110,000 jobs in 2035. Even so, it expects about 6,400 openings a year, mostly from people retiring or changing careers. These projections don't single out AI as a cause.

About 111,000 people in the U.S., roughly 0.07% of all workers (BLS, May 2025). That makes it the 256th largest of the 796 jobs on this site. BLS expects about 110,000 in 2035.

The most common requirement is a bachelor's degree: about 40% of people in the job said so in the official O*NET survey. O*NET rates the job at level 4 of 5 for preparation, which usually means: bachelor's degree. Requirements vary by state and employer, especially for licensed work.

These come from the job's official skill ratings and from the tasks that AI and robots touch least today. Building them keeps you strong in the parts of the work that still need a person:

• Skills that matter more here than in most jobs: Instructing, Learning Strategies, Coordination, Monitoring
• Get strong at the parts of the job that stay with people (listed above), which take 6h 28m of a typical shift
• Tools employers list: Microsoft Excel, Autodesk AutoCAD Civil 3D, Google Docs, Microsoft Office software, Microsoft Outlook
• Learn to use AI well on the tasks where it already shows up in this job (listed above)

These use similar skills. Matches come from 109 official ratings of skills, knowledge and work activities, and each needs the same or less preparation unless the official list relates the jobs directly:

• Instructional Coordinators (2h 59m touched, $77k median pay)
• Middle School Career/Technical Education Teachers (1h 29m touched, $65k median pay)
• Secondary School Special Education Teachers (2h 26m touched, $74k median pay)
• Middle School Teachers (4h 19m touched, $64k median pay)
• Secondary School Teachers (3h 50m touched, $72k median pay)

Each task carries its own evidence label. For this job: 6 observed in real AI use, 27 with no AI or robot evidence found. The minutes per task are estimates, not measured hours, and "no evidence" doesn't prove a task is safe.