Will AI replace solar thermal installers and technicians?

Not on current evidence. Less than 30 minutes of a typical shift goes to tasks that AI or robots are doing today. The other 7h 46m (97%) stays with people. Separately, BLS expects about 6.8% more of these jobs by 2035 (all jobs: +3.5%).

None of this job's tasks show regular AI use yet. That can mean the work is hands-on or in person, or simply that it rarely comes up in AI usage data.

For some tasks, yes. Robots have done 1 of this job's tasks in workplaces like this one, about 14m of a typical shift. 12 more tasks have only been done in factory setups built around the machine, so they stay with people here. For 5 physical tasks, no robot has shown it can do the work yet.

• Assess collector sites to ensure structural integrity of potential mounting surfaces or the best orientation and tilt for solar collectors. (14m a shift; e.g. Scanifly drone site survey, in use)

7h 46m of a typical shift, or 97%, goes to tasks with no AI or robot evidence yet. No AI usage or robot deployment has shown up for these so far. The biggest:

• Install copper or plastic plumbing using pipes, fittings, pipe cutters, acetylene torches, solder, wire brushes, sand cloths, flux, plastic pipe cleaners, or plastic glue. (1h 8m a shift)
• Perform routine maintenance or repairs to restore solar thermal systems to baseline operating conditions. (47m a shift)
• Test operation or functionality of mechanical, plumbing, electrical, and control systems. (41m a shift)
• Install solar collector mounting devices on tile, asphalt, shingle, or built-up gravel roofs, using appropriate materials and penetration methods. (41m a shift)
• Install flat-plat, evacuated glass, or concentrating solar collectors on mounting devices, using brackets or struts. (34m a shift)

Much of it comes down to where and how the work happens. In-person, hands-on and high-stakes work is where AI and robots have made the least headway so far. In the official O*NET survey of people in this job:

• 75% say dealing with the public is very or extremely important
• 71% carry high or very high responsibility for other workers' safety
• 63% work at arm's length or closer to other people

On Indeed, job postings in the Construction sector are at 129% of their February 2020 level (all U.S. postings: 104%), up 6.4% from a year earlier, as of Oct 9, 2026. BLS separately expects about 42,000 openings a year in this job through 2035. Across all U.S. postings, 7.3% now mention AI skills. Sector postings cover more than this one job and move for many reasons besides AI.

The median pay is about $63,800 a year ($30.67 an hour), 25% above the median for all U.S. jobs ($50,980). Most people in this job earn between $44,150 and $108,420 a year; that range covers the middle 80%. Pay figures are from BLS, May 2025, and vary a lot by state and employer. Pick a state to compare:

BLS projects growth of 6.8% from 2025 to 2035, compared with 3.5% growth for all jobs. That's about 545,000 jobs in 2035. It expects about 42,000 openings a year, mostly from people retiring or changing careers. These projections don't single out AI as a cause.

About 466,000 people in the U.S., roughly 0.30% of all workers (BLS, May 2025). That makes it the 88th largest of the 796 jobs on this site. BLS expects about 545,000 in 2035.

The most common requirement is a high school diploma: about 43% of people in the job said so in the official O*NET survey. O*NET rates the job at level 3 of 5 for preparation, which usually means: vocational school or associate's degree. Requirements vary by state and employer, especially for licensed work.

These come from the job's official skill ratings and from the tasks that AI and robots touch least today. Building them keeps you strong in the parts of the work that still need a person:

• Skills that matter more here than in most jobs: Installation, Equipment Maintenance, Quality Control Analysis, Troubleshooting
• Get strong at the parts of the job that stay with people (listed above), which take 7h 46m of a typical shift
• Tools employers list: Microsoft Office software, Adobe Photoshop, Autodesk AutoCAD, Dassault Systemes SolidWorks, Microsoft Excel

These use similar skills. Matches come from 109 official ratings of skills, knowledge and work activities, and each needs the same or less preparation unless the official list relates the jobs directly:

• Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers (12m touched, $61k median pay)
• Solar Photovoltaic Installers (12m touched, $53k median pay)

Each task carries its own evidence label. For this job: 1 with robots in real deployments, 20 with no AI or robot evidence found. The minutes per task are estimates, not measured hours, and "no evidence" doesn't prove a task is safe.