Will AI replace photonics engineers?

Unlikely, though parts of the work are changing. About 58m of an 8-hour shift goes to tasks touched by AI working on its own. The breakdown: 17m done by people with AI help, 40m that AI mostly does alone. The other 7h 3m (88%) stays with people. Separately, BLS expects about 3.7% more of these jobs by 2035 (all jobs: +3.5%).

AI shows up regularly in 2 of 26 tasks, about 58m of a typical shift. The biggest ones:

• Analyze system performance or operational requirements. (40m a shift, AI mostly does it alone)
• Read current literature, talk with colleagues, continue education, or participate in professional organizations or conferences to keep abreast of developments in the field. (17m a shift, people use AI to help)

Not in workplaces like this one, based on a 2026 review of robot deployments. 6 more tasks have only been done in factory setups built around the machine, so they stay with people here. For 2 physical tasks, no robot has shown it can do the work yet.

7h 3m of a typical shift, or 88%, goes to tasks with no AI or robot evidence yet. No AI usage or robot deployment has shown up for these so far. The biggest:

• Design, integrate, or test photonics systems or components. (1h 3m a shift)
• Develop optical or imaging systems, such as optical imaging products, optical components, image processes, signal process technologies, or optical systems. (40m a shift)
• Develop or test photonic prototypes or models. (40m a shift)
• Conduct testing to determine functionality or optimization or to establish limits of photonics systems or components. (40m a shift)
• Conduct research on new photonics technologies. (23m a shift)

Much of it comes down to where and how the work happens. In-person, hands-on and high-stakes work is where AI and robots have made the least headway so far. In the official O*NET survey of people in this job:

• 83% talk face to face with others every day

For the 1 task in this job where AI shows up and timing data exists, a typical request takes about 7h for a person alone and about 43m with AI. These are Claude's own estimates from real conversations in April and May 2026 (Anthropic Economic Index). They describe single requests, not whole workdays, and time saved on a task doesn't mean jobs are cut. The biggest gaps:

• Analyze system performance or operational requirements (about 7h alone, 43m with AI)

On Indeed, job postings in the Mechanical Engineering sector are at 168% of their February 2020 level (all U.S. postings: 104%), up 43.4% from a year earlier, as of Oct 9, 2026. BLS separately expects about 8,800 openings a year in this job through 2035. Across all U.S. postings, 7.3% now mention AI skills. Sector postings cover more than this one job and move for many reasons besides AI.

The median pay is about $122,930 a year ($59.10 an hour), 141% above the median for all U.S. jobs ($50,980). Most people in this job earn between $66,810 and $189,950 a year; that range covers the middle 80%. Pay figures are from BLS, May 2025, and vary a lot by state and employer. Pick a state to compare:

BLS projects growth of 3.7% from 2025 to 2035, compared with 3.5% growth for all jobs. That's about 173,000 jobs in 2035. It expects about 8,800 openings a year, mostly from people retiring or changing careers. These projections don't single out AI as a cause.

About 154,000 people in the U.S., roughly 0.10% of all workers (BLS, May 2025). That makes it the 211th largest of the 796 jobs on this site. BLS expects about 173,000 in 2035.

The most common requirement is a bachelor's degree: about 52% of people in the job said so in the official O*NET survey. O*NET rates the job at level 4 of 5 for preparation, which usually means: bachelor's degree. Requirements vary by state and employer, especially for licensed work.

These come from the job's official skill ratings and from the tasks that AI and robots touch least today. Building them keeps you strong in the parts of the work that still need a person:

• Skills that matter more here than in most jobs: Technology Design, Operations Analysis, Mathematics, Science
• Get strong at the parts of the job that stay with people (listed above), which take 7h 3m of a typical shift
• Tools employers list: The MathWorks MATLAB, R, Python, Dassault Systemes SolidWorks, C++
• Learn to use AI well on the tasks where it already shows up in this job (listed above)

These use similar skills, with less of a typical shift touched by AI or robots. Matches come from 109 official ratings of skills, knowledge and work activities, and each needs the same or less preparation unless the official list relates the jobs directly:

• Fuel Cell Engineers (0m touched, $104k median pay)
• Mechatronics Engineers (0m touched, $123k median pay)
• Chemical Engineers (0m touched, $125k median pay)
• Industrial Engineering Technologists and Technicians (13m touched, $66k median pay)
• Electrical and Electronic Engineering Technologists and Technicians (19m touched, $78k median pay)

Each task carries its own evidence label. For this job: 2 observed in real AI use, 24 with no AI or robot evidence found. The minutes per task are estimates, not measured hours, and "no evidence" doesn't prove a task is safe.