Will AI replace training and development specialists?

Some tasks are already being done by AI or machines; the rest still needs a person. About 2h 52m of a typical shift is made up of tasks that AI or robots have done on their own in real use somewhere. That doesn't mean those hours are automated in a typical workplace. The other 5h 8m (64%) stays with people. Separately, BLS expects about 10.8% more of these jobs by 2035 (all jobs: +3.5%).

AI shows up regularly in 4 of 20 tasks, about 2h 52m of a typical shift. The biggest ones:

• Obtain, organize, or develop training procedure manuals, guides, or course materials, such as handouts or visual materials. (1h 20m a shift, AI mostly does it alone)
• Design, plan, organize, or direct orientation and training programs for employees or customers. (49m a shift, AI mostly does it alone)
• Assess training needs through surveys, interviews with employees, focus groups, or consultation with managers, instructors, or customer representatives. (31m a shift, AI mostly does it alone)
• Evaluate training materials prepared by instructors, such as outlines, text, or handouts. (12m a shift, AI mostly does it alone)

5h 8m of a typical shift, or 64%, goes to tasks with no AI or robot evidence yet. No AI usage or robot deployment has shown up for these so far. The biggest:

• Present information with a variety of instructional techniques or formats, such as role playing, simulations, team exercises, group discussions, videos, or lectures. (1h 32m a shift)
• Monitor, evaluate, or record training activities or program effectiveness. (37m a shift)
• Attend meetings or seminars to obtain information for use in training programs or to inform management of training program status. (31m a shift)
• Offer specific training programs to help workers maintain or improve job skills. (25m a shift)
• Keep up with developments in area of expertise by reading current journals, books, or magazine articles. (18m a shift)

Much of it comes down to where and how the work happens. In-person, hands-on and high-stakes work is where AI and robots have made the least headway so far. In the official O*NET survey of people in this job:

• 65% are in constant contact with other people
• 52% talk face to face with others every day

We track 1 sourced company move that affects this job. Most recent:

• Jul 22, 2026: Synthesia launches AI avatar roleplay for employee training (Announced)

For the 3 tasks in this job where AI shows up and timing data exists, a typical request takes about 10h 32m for a person alone and about 37m with AI. These are Claude's own estimates from real conversations in April and May 2026 (Anthropic Economic Index). They describe single requests, not whole workdays, and time saved on a task doesn't mean jobs are cut. The biggest gaps:

• Design, plan, organize, or direct orientation and training programs for employees or customers (about 11h 6m alone, 37m with AI)
• Obtain, organize, or develop training procedure manuals, guides, or course materials, such as handouts or visual materials (about 10h 32m alone, 43m with AI)
• Evaluate training materials prepared by instructors, such as outlines, text, or handouts (about 3h 11m alone, 33m with AI)

On Indeed, job postings in the Human Resources sector are at 99% of their February 2020 level (all U.S. postings: 104%), up 18.9% from a year earlier, as of Oct 9, 2026. BLS separately expects about 46,000 openings a year in this job through 2035. Across all U.S. postings, 7.3% now mention AI skills. Sector postings cover more than this one job and move for many reasons besides AI.

The median pay is about $69,280 a year ($33.31 an hour), 36% above the median for all U.S. jobs ($50,980). Most people in this job earn between $38,760 and $123,250 a year; that range covers the middle 80%. Pay figures are from BLS, May 2025, and vary a lot by state and employer. Pick a state to compare:

BLS projects growth of 10.8% from 2025 to 2035, compared with 3.5% growth for all jobs. That's about 524,000 jobs in 2035. It expects about 46,000 openings a year, mostly from people retiring or changing careers. These projections don't single out AI as a cause.

About 458,000 people in the U.S., roughly 0.29% of all workers (BLS, May 2025). That makes it the 90th largest of the 796 jobs on this site. BLS expects about 524,000 in 2035.

The most common requirement is a bachelor's degree: about 78% of people in the job said so in the official O*NET survey. O*NET rates the job at level 4 of 5 for preparation, which usually means: bachelor's degree. Requirements vary by state and employer, especially for licensed work.

These come from the job's official skill ratings and from the tasks that AI and robots touch least today. Building them keeps you strong in the parts of the work that still need a person:

• Skills that matter more here than in most jobs: Instructing, Learning Strategies, Social Perceptiveness, Operations Analysis
• Get strong at the parts of the job that stay with people (listed above), which take 5h 8m of a typical shift
• Tools employers list: Microsoft Word, Microsoft PowerPoint, Microsoft Outlook, Microsoft Office software, Microsoft Excel
• Learn to use AI well on the tasks where it already shows up in this job (listed above)

These use similar skills. Matches come from 109 official ratings of skills, knowledge and work activities, and each needs the same or less preparation unless the official list relates the jobs directly:

• Training and Development Managers (4h 13m touched, $133k median pay)
• Instructional Coordinators (2h 59m touched, $77k median pay)
• Industrial-Organizational Psychologists (1h 51m touched, $194k median pay)
• Management Analysts (3h 2m touched, $102k median pay)

Each task carries its own evidence label. For this job: 4 observed in real AI use, 16 with no AI or robot evidence found. The minutes per task are estimates, not measured hours, and "no evidence" doesn't prove a task is safe.