Will AI replace physicists?

Parts of the job are being automated. About 2h 3m of an 8-hour shift goes to tasks that AI or robots already do largely on their own. The rest still needs a person. The other 5h 57m (74%) stays with people. Separately, BLS expects about 7.2% more of these jobs by 2035 (all jobs: +3.5%).

AI shows up regularly in 2 of 10 tasks, about 2h 3m of a typical shift. The biggest ones:

• Perform complex calculations as part of the analysis and evaluation of data, using computers. (1h 18m a shift, AI mostly does it alone)
• Design computer simulations to model physical data so that it can be better understood. (45m a shift, AI mostly does it alone)

Not in workplaces like this one, based on a 2026 review of robot deployments. 1 more task has only been done in factory setups built around the machine, so it stays with people here.

5h 57m of a typical shift, or 74%, goes to tasks with no AI or robot evidence yet. No AI usage or robot deployment has shown up for these so far. The biggest:

• Analyze data from research conducted to detect and measure physical phenomena. (1h 7m a shift)
• Report experimental results by writing papers for scientific journals or by presenting information at scientific conferences. (56m a shift)
• Observe the structure and properties of matter, and the transformation and propagation of energy, using equipment such as masers, lasers, and telescopes, to explore and identify the basic principles governing these phenomena. (56m a shift)
• Describe and express observations and conclusions in mathematical terms. (39m a shift)
• Write research proposals to receive funding. (39m a shift)

Part of the answer is the setting, not just the tasks. Work that is in person, hands on or high stakes is where AI and robots have made the least headway so far. In the official O*NET survey of people in this job:

• 53% talk face to face with others every day

For the 1 task in this job where AI shows up and timing data exists, a typical request takes about 4h 37m for a person alone and about 33m with AI. These are Claude's own estimates from real conversations in April and May 2026 (Anthropic Economic Index). They describe single requests, not whole workdays, and time saved on a task doesn't mean jobs are cut. The biggest gaps:

• Perform complex calculations as part of the analysis and evaluation of data, using computers (about 4h 37m alone, 33m with AI)

On Indeed, job postings in the Scientific Research & Development sector are at 84% of their February 2020 level (all U.S. postings: 104%), up 19.9% from a year earlier, as of Oct 9, 2026. BLS separately expects about 1,300 openings a year in this job through 2035. Across all U.S. postings, 7.3% now mention AI skills. Sector postings cover more than this one job and move for many reasons besides AI.

The median pay is about $172,250 a year ($82.81 an hour), 238% above the median for all U.S. jobs ($50,980). Most people in this job earn between $82,110 and $274,110 or more a year; that range covers the middle 80%. Pay figures are from BLS, May 2025, and vary a lot by state and employer. Pick a state to compare:

BLS projects growth of 7.2% from 2025 to 2035, compared with 3.5% growth for all jobs. That's about 25,000 jobs in 2035. It expects about 1,300 openings a year, mostly from people retiring or changing careers. These projections don't single out AI as a cause.

About 20,000 people in the U.S., roughly 0.01% of all workers (BLS, May 2025). That makes it the 545th largest of the 796 jobs on this site. BLS expects about 25,000 in 2035.

The most common requirement is a doctoral degree: about 49% of people in the job said so in the official O*NET survey. O*NET rates the job at level 5 of 5 for preparation, which usually means: graduate degree. Requirements vary by state and employer, especially for licensed work.

These come from the job's official skill ratings and from the tasks that AI and robots touch least today. Building them keeps you strong in the parts of the work that still need a person:

• Skills that matter more here than in most jobs: Programming, Science, Mathematics, Learning Strategies
• Get strong at the parts of the job that stay with people (listed above), which take 5h 57m of a typical shift
• Tools employers list: Python, Eclipse IDE, Adobe Photoshop, Amazon Web Services AWS software, Ansible software
• Learn to use AI well on the tasks where it already shows up in this job (listed above)

Yes. Occupational experts recently added these to the official task list, a sign of how the work itself is shifting. New tasks aren't rated for AI or robots yet:

• Perform peer reviews of scientific papers.

These use similar skills, with less of a typical shift touched by AI or robots. Matches come from 109 official ratings of skills, knowledge and work activities, and each needs the same or less preparation unless the official list relates the jobs directly:

• Biochemists and Biophysicists (43m touched, $127k median pay)
• Molecular and Cellular Biologists (21m touched, $99k median pay)

Each task carries its own evidence label. For this job: 2 observed in real AI use, 8 with no AI or robot evidence found. The minutes per task are estimates, not measured hours, and "no evidence" doesn't prove a task is safe.