Will AI replace boilermakers?

Not on current evidence. Less than 30 minutes of a typical shift goes to tasks that AI or robots are doing today. The other 7h 31m (94%) stays with people. Separately, BLS expects about 1.8% fewer of these jobs by 2035 (all jobs: +3.5%).

None of this job's tasks show regular AI use yet. That can mean the work is hands-on or in person, or simply that it rarely comes up in AI usage data.

For some tasks, yes. Robots have done 1 of this job's tasks in workplaces like this one, about 29m of a typical shift. 13 more tasks have only been done in factory setups built around the machine, so they stay with people here. For 2 physical tasks, no robot has shown it can do the work yet.

• Examine boilers, pressure vessels, tanks, or vats to locate defects, such as leaks, weak spots, or defective sections, so that they can be repaired. (29m a shift; e.g. Gecko Robotics TOKA crawlers + Cantilever software, in use)

7h 31m of a typical shift, or 94%, goes to tasks with no AI or robot evidence yet. No AI usage or robot deployment has shown up for these so far. The biggest:

• Bolt or arc weld pressure vessel structures and parts together, using wrenches or welding equipment. (1h 9m a shift)
• Repair or replace defective pressure vessel parts, such as safety valves or regulators, using torches, jacks, caulking hammers, power saws, threading dies, welding equipment, or metalworking machinery. (52m a shift)
• Position, align, and secure structural parts or related assemblies to boiler frames, tanks, or vats of pressure vessels, following blueprints. (46m a shift)
• Attach rigging and signal crane or hoist operators to lift heavy frame and plate sections or other parts into place. (46m a shift)
• Shape seams, joints, or irregular edges of pressure vessel sections or structural parts to attain specified fit of parts, using cutting torches, hammers, files, or metalworking machines. (35m a shift)

Part of the answer is the setting, not just the tasks. Work that is in person, hands on or high stakes is where AI and robots have made the least headway so far. In the official O*NET survey of people in this job:

• 92% talk face to face with others every day
• 73% are in constant contact with other people

On Indeed, job postings in the Construction sector are at 129% of their February 2020 level (all U.S. postings: 104%), up 6.4% from a year earlier, as of Oct 9, 2026. BLS separately expects about 700 openings a year in this job through 2035. Across all U.S. postings, 7.3% now mention AI skills. Sector postings cover more than this one job and move for many reasons besides AI.

The median pay is about $76,410 a year ($36.74 an hour), 50% above the median for all U.S. jobs ($50,980). Most people in this job earn between $50,490 and $110,370 a year; that range covers the middle 80%. Pay figures are from BLS, May 2025, and vary a lot by state and employer. Pick a state to compare:

BLS projects a decline of 1.8% from 2025 to 2035, compared with 3.5% growth for all jobs. That's about 10,000 jobs in 2035. Even so, it expects about 700 openings a year, mostly from people retiring or changing careers. These projections don't single out AI as a cause.

About 10,000 people in the U.S., roughly 0.01% of all workers (BLS, May 2025). That makes it the 664th largest of the 796 jobs on this site. BLS expects about 10,000 in 2035.

The most common requirement is a high school diploma: about 52% of people in the job said so in the official O*NET survey. O*NET rates the job at level 2 of 5 for preparation, which usually means: high school diploma, some training. Requirements vary by state and employer, especially for licensed work.

These come from the job's official skill ratings and from the tasks that AI and robots touch least today. Building them keeps you strong in the parts of the work that still need a person:

• Skills that matter more here than in most jobs: Operations Monitoring, Equipment Selection, Operation and Control, Repairing
• Get strong at the parts of the job that stay with people (listed above), which take 7h 31m of a typical shift
• Tools employers list: Autodesk AutoCAD, Microsoft Excel, Microsoft Office software, Microsoft Outlook, Microsoft Windows

These use similar skills. Matches come from 109 official ratings of skills, knowledge and work activities, and each needs the same or less preparation unless the official list relates the jobs directly:

• Engine and Other Machine Assemblers (0m touched, $54k median pay)
• Paving, Surfacing, and Tamping Equipment Operators (4h 56m touched, $53k median pay)
• Earth Drillers (3h 38m touched, $60k median pay)

Each task carries its own evidence label. For this job: 1 with robots in real deployments, 17 with no AI or robot evidence found. The minutes per task are estimates, not measured hours, and "no evidence" doesn't prove a task is safe.