Will AI replace commercial divers?

Unlikely, though parts of the work are changing. About 1h 18m of an 8-hour shift goes to tasks touched by robots. The other 6h 41m (84%) stays with people. Separately, BLS expects about 4.8% more of these jobs by 2035 (all jobs: +3.5%).

None of this job's tasks show regular AI use yet. That can mean the work is hands-on or in person, or simply that it rarely comes up in AI usage data.

For some tasks, yes. Robots have done 4 of this job's tasks in workplaces like this one, about 1h 18m of a typical shift. 11 more tasks have only been done in factory setups built around the machine, so they stay with people here. For 5 physical tasks, no robot has shown it can do the work yet.

• Inspect and test docks, ships, buoyage systems, plant intakes or outflows, or underwater pipelines, cables, or sewers, using closed circuit television, still photography, and testing equipment. (31m a shift; e.g. Hydrone-R Underwater Intervention Drone, in use)
• Descend into water with the aid of diver helpers, using scuba gear or diving suits. (21m a shift; e.g. Hydrone-R (Underwater Intervention Drone), in use)
• Operate underwater video, sonar, recording, or related equipment to investigate underwater structures or marine life. (16m a shift; e.g. EverClean service robot, in use)
• Take test samples or photographs to assess the condition of vessels or structures. (10m a shift; e.g. EverClean (Greensea IQ), in use)

6h 41m of a typical shift, or 84%, goes to tasks with no AI or robot evidence yet. No AI usage or robot deployment has shown up for these so far. The biggest:

• Check and maintain diving equipment, such as helmets, masks, air tanks, harnesses, or gauges. (1h 3m a shift)
• Take appropriate safety precautions, such as monitoring dive lengths and depths and registering with authorities before diving expeditions begin. (52m a shift)
• Communicate with workers on the surface while underwater, using signal lines or telephones. (31m a shift)
• Obtain information about diving tasks and environmental conditions. (31m a shift)
• Inspect the condition of underwater steel or wood structures. (31m a shift)

Much of it comes down to where and how the work happens. In-person, hands-on and high-stakes work is where AI and robots have made the least headway so far. In the official O*NET survey of people in this job:

• 86% carry high or very high responsibility for other workers' safety
• 76% work at arm's length or closer to other people
• 73% say a mistake would be very or extremely serious

On Indeed, job postings in the Installation & Maintenance sector are at 118% of their February 2020 level (all U.S. postings: 104%), up 4.1% from a year earlier, as of Oct 9, 2026. BLS separately expects about 400 openings a year in this job through 2035. Across all U.S. postings, 7.3% now mention AI skills. Sector postings cover more than this one job and move for many reasons besides AI.

The median pay is about $72,990 a year ($35.09 an hour), 43% above the median for all U.S. jobs ($50,980). Most people in this job earn between $43,330 and $157,790 a year; that range covers the middle 80%. Pay figures are from BLS, May 2025, and vary a lot by state and employer. Pick a state to compare:

BLS projects growth of 4.8% from 2025 to 2035, compared with 3.5% growth for all jobs. That's about 4,200 jobs in 2035. It expects about 400 openings a year, mostly from people retiring or changing careers. These projections don't single out AI as a cause.

About 3,450 people in the U.S., roughly 0.00% of all workers (BLS, May 2025). That makes it the 748th largest of the 796 jobs on this site. BLS expects about 4,200 in 2035.

The most common requirement is a post-secondary certificate: about 72% of people in the job said so in the official O*NET survey. O*NET rates the job at level 3 of 5 for preparation, which usually means: vocational school or associate's degree. Requirements vary by state and employer, especially for licensed work.

These come from the job's official skill ratings and from the tasks that AI and robots touch least today. Building them keeps you strong in the parts of the work that still need a person:

• Skills that matter more here than in most jobs: Equipment Selection, Repairing, Equipment Maintenance, Quality Control Analysis
• Get strong at the parts of the job that stay with people (listed above), which take 6h 41m of a typical shift

These use similar skills, with less of a typical shift touched by AI or robots. Matches come from 109 official ratings of skills, knowledge and work activities, and each needs the same or less preparation unless the official list relates the jobs directly:

• Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers (12m touched, $61k median pay)
• Ship Engineers (29m touched, $110k median pay)
• Millwrights (0m touched, $66k median pay)
• Mobile Heavy Equipment Mechanics (0m touched, $66k median pay)
• Electric Motor, Power Tool, and Related Repairers (0m touched, $56k median pay)

Each task carries its own evidence label. For this job: 4 with robots in real deployments, 19 with no AI or robot evidence found. The minutes per task are estimates, not measured hours, and "no evidence" doesn't prove a task is safe.