Will AI replace taxi drivers?

Some tasks are already being done by AI or machines; the rest still needs a person. About 6h 35m of a typical shift is made up of tasks that AI or robots have done on their own in real use somewhere. That doesn't mean those hours are automated in a typical workplace. The other 1h 25m (18%) stays with people. Separately, BLS expects about 11.5% more of these jobs by 2035 (all jobs: +3.5%).

None of this job's tasks show regular AI use yet. That can mean the work is hands-on or in person, or simply that it rarely comes up in AI usage data.

For some tasks, yes. Robots have done 7 of this job's tasks in workplaces like this one, about 6h 35m of a typical shift. 3 more tasks have only been done in factory setups built around the machine, so they stay with people here.

• Drive taxicabs or privately owned vehicles to transport passengers. (3h 18m a shift; e.g. Waymo Driver, in use)
• Pick up passengers at prearranged locations, at taxi stands, or by cruising streets in high-traffic areas. (2h 10m a shift; e.g. Zoox robotaxi, in use)
• Collect fares or vouchers from passengers, and make change or issue receipts as necessary. (28m a shift; e.g. Waymo One (6th-gen Waymo Driver), in use)
• Perform routine vehicle maintenance, such as regulating tire pressure and adding gasoline, oil, and water. (17m a shift; e.g. Autofuel robotic refueling system, in use)

1h 25m of a typical shift, or 18%, goes to tasks with no AI or robot evidence yet. No AI usage or robot deployment has shown up for these so far. The biggest:

• Communicate with dispatchers by radio, telephone, or computer to exchange information and receive requests for passenger service. (23m a shift)
• Vacuum and clean interiors and wash and polish exteriors of automobiles. (17m a shift)
• Provide passengers with assistance entering and exiting vehicles, and help them with any luggage. (11m a shift)
• Provide passengers with information or advice about the local area, points of interest, hotels, or restaurants. (11m a shift)
• Determine fares based on trip distances and times, using taximeters and fee schedules, and announce fares to passengers. (6m a shift)

We track 6 sourced company moves that affect this job. Most recent:

• Jul 8, 2026: Waymo goes driverless in Las Vegas, with Denver, San Diego and Tampa next (Rolling out)
• Jan 22, 2026: Tesla starts some Austin robotaxi rides with no safety monitor inside (Pilot)
• Nov 18, 2025: Zoox opens free robotaxi rides to the public in San Francisco (Pilot)

On Indeed, job postings in the Driving sector are at 81% of their February 2020 level (all U.S. postings: 104%), down 8.5% from a year earlier, as of Oct 9, 2026. BLS separately expects about 20,000 openings a year in this job through 2035. Across all U.S. postings, 7.3% now mention AI skills. Sector postings cover more than this one job and move for many reasons besides AI.

The median pay is about $42,100 a year ($20.24 an hour), 17% below the median for all U.S. jobs ($50,980). Most people in this job earn between $34,650 and $75,800 a year; that range covers the middle 80%. Pay figures are from BLS, May 2025, and vary a lot by state and employer. Pick a state to compare:

BLS projects growth of 11.5% from 2025 to 2035, compared with 3.5% growth for all jobs. That's about 228,000 jobs in 2035. It expects about 20,000 openings a year, mostly from people retiring or changing careers. These projections don't single out AI as a cause.

About 41,000 people in the U.S., roughly 0.03% of all workers (BLS, May 2025). That makes it the 418th largest of the 796 jobs on this site. BLS expects about 228,000 in 2035.

O*NET rates the job at level 2 of 5 for preparation, which usually means: high school diploma, some training. Requirements vary by state and employer, especially for licensed work.

These come from the job's official skill ratings and from the tasks that AI and robots touch least today. Building them keeps you strong in the parts of the work that still need a person:

• Get strong at the parts of the job that stay with people (listed above), which take 1h 25m of a typical shift
• Tools employers list: Facebook, Microsoft Excel, Microsoft Office software, Microsoft Windows

These use similar skills. Matches come from 109 official ratings of skills, knowledge and work activities, and each needs the same or less preparation unless the official list relates the jobs directly:

• Shuttle Drivers and Chauffeurs (5h 16m touched, $37k median pay)
• Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity (5h 54m touched, $59k median pay)
• Light Truck Drivers (6h 29m touched, $45k median pay)
• Subway and Streetcar Operators (5h 40m touched, $86k median pay)
• Parking Attendants (2h 26m touched, $35k median pay)

Each task carries its own evidence label. For this job: 7 with robots in real deployments, 9 with no AI or robot evidence found. The minutes per task are estimates, not measured hours, and "no evidence" doesn't prove a task is safe.