Will AI replace bus drivers, transit and intercity?

Some tasks are already handled by AI or machines; the rest still needs a person. About 5h 54m of an 8-hour shift goes to tasks that AI or robots largely take over. The other 2h 6m (26%) stays with people. Separately, BLS expects about 4.1% more of these jobs by 2035 (all jobs: +3.5%).

None of this job's tasks show regular AI use yet. That can mean the work is hands-on or in person, or simply that it rarely comes up in AI usage data.

For some tasks, yes. Robots have done 3 of this job's tasks in workplaces like this one, about 5h 54m of a typical shift. 2 more tasks have only been done in factory setups built around the machine, so they stay with people here. For 2 physical tasks, no robot has shown it can do the work yet.

• Drive vehicles over specified routes or to specified destinations according to time schedules, complying with traffic regulations to ensure that passengers have a smooth and safe ride. (5h 12m a shift; e.g. WeRide Robobus, in use)
• Park vehicles at loading areas so that passengers can board. (36m a shift; e.g. Nysse line 301 robot bus (remotely supervised driverless bus), in use)
• Regulate heating, lighting, and ventilating systems for passenger comfort. (6m a shift; e.g. MCI J4500 coach with Micromax HVAC, in use)

2h 6m of a typical shift, or 26%, goes to tasks with no AI or robot evidence yet. No AI usage or robot deployment has shown up for these so far. The biggest:

• Inspect vehicles and check gas, oil, and water levels prior to departure. (30m a shift)
• Assist passengers, such as elderly or individuals with disabilities, on and off bus, ensure they are seated properly, help carry baggage, and answer questions about bus schedules or routes. (18m a shift)
• Collect tickets or cash fares from passengers. (18m a shift)
• Record information, such as cash receipts and ticket fares, and maintain log book. (12m a shift)
• Maintain cleanliness of bus or motor coach. (12m a shift)

Part of the answer is the setting, not just the tasks. Work that is in person, hands on or high stakes is where AI and robots have made the least headway so far. In the official O*NET survey of people in this job:

• 86% work at arm's length or closer to other people
• 85% use their hands on tools, objects or controls more than half the time
• 71% say dealing with the public is very or extremely important

We track 2 sourced company moves that affect this job, including at least one pullback. Most recent:

• Jul 8, 2026: Jacksonville's driverless NAVI service carries 15,200 riders in year one (Rolling out)
• Dec 19, 2024: Scotland's CAVForth self-driving bus service to end over low ridership (Pulled back)

On Indeed, job postings in the Driving sector are at 81% of their February 2020 level (all U.S. postings: 104%), down 8.5% from a year earlier, as of Oct 9, 2026. BLS separately expects about 21,000 openings a year in this job through 2035. Across all U.S. postings, 7.3% now mention AI skills. Sector postings cover more than this one job and move for many reasons besides AI.

The median pay is about $59,050 a year ($28.39 an hour), 16% above the median for all U.S. jobs ($50,980). Most people in this job earn between $40,030 and $84,700 a year; that range covers the middle 80%. Pay figures are from BLS, May 2025, and vary a lot by state and employer. Pick a state to compare:

BLS projects growth of 4.1% from 2025 to 2035, compared with 3.5% growth for all jobs. That's about 173,000 jobs in 2035. It expects about 21,000 openings a year, mostly from people retiring or changing careers. These projections don't single out AI as a cause.

About 159,000 people in the U.S., roughly 0.10% of all workers (BLS, May 2025). That makes it the 201st largest of the 796 jobs on this site. BLS expects about 173,000 in 2035.

The most common requirement is a high school diploma: about 84% of people in the job said so in the official O*NET survey. O*NET rates the job at level 2 of 5 for preparation, which usually means: high school diploma, some training. Requirements vary by state and employer, especially for licensed work.

These come from the job's official skill ratings and from the tasks that AI and robots touch least today. Building them keeps you strong in the parts of the work that still need a person:

• Skills that matter more here than in most jobs: Operation and Control, Operations Monitoring, Service Orientation, Time Management
• Get strong at the parts of the job that stay with people (listed above), which take 2h 6m of a typical shift
• Tools employers list: Microsoft Windows

These use similar skills, with less of a typical shift touched by AI or robots. Matches come from 109 official ratings of skills, knowledge and work activities, and each needs the same or less preparation unless the official list relates the jobs directly:

• School Bus Drivers (2h 56m touched, $48k median pay)
• Railroad Brake, Signal, and Switch Operators and Locomotive Firers (1h 4m touched, $69k median pay)
• Shuttle Drivers and Chauffeurs (5h 16m touched, $37k median pay)
• Passenger Attendants (1h 5m touched, $38k median pay)

Each task carries its own evidence label. For this job: 3 with robots in real deployments, 11 with no AI or robot evidence found. The minutes per task are estimates, not measured hours, and "no evidence" doesn't prove a task is safe.