Will AI replace light truck drivers?

Some tasks are already being done by AI or machines; the rest still needs a person. About 6h 29m of a typical shift is made up of tasks that AI or robots have done on their own in real use somewhere. That doesn't mean those hours are automated in a typical workplace. The other 1h 31m (19%) stays with people. Separately, BLS expects about 6.3% more of these jobs by 2035 (all jobs: +3.5%).

None of this job's tasks show regular AI use yet. That can mean the work is hands-on or in person, or simply that it rarely comes up in AI usage data.

For some tasks, yes. Robots have done 6 of this job's tasks in workplaces like this one, about 6h 29m of a typical shift. 1 more task has only been done in factory setups built around the machine, so it stays with people here. For 1 physical task, no robot has shown it can do the work yet.

• Drive vehicles with capacities under three tons to transport materials to and from specified destinations, such as railroad stations, plants, residences, offices, or within industrial yards. (3h 14m a shift; e.g. Gatik multi-temperature autonomous box trucks, in use)
• Load and unload trucks, vans, or automobiles. (1h 49m a shift; e.g. Dexterity Mech (formerly DexR), in use)
• Obey traffic laws and follow established traffic and transportation procedures. (29m a shift; e.g. Waymo Driver (rider-only service, Phoenix, SF, LA, Austin), in use)
• Verify the contents of inventory loads against shipping papers. (29m a shift; e.g. Pickle Robot Unload System + Ambi Robotics AmbiStack, in use)

1h 31m of a typical shift, or 19%, goes to tasks with no AI or robot evidence yet. No AI usage or robot deployment has shown up for these so far. The biggest:

• Read maps and follow written or verbal geographic directions. (29m a shift)
• Maintain records, such as vehicle logs, records of cargo, or billing statements, in accordance with regulations. (23m a shift)
• Present bills and receipts and collect payments for goods delivered or loaded. (17m a shift)
• Report any mechanical problems encountered with vehicles. (6m a shift)
• Turn in receipts and money received from deliveries. (6m a shift)

Much of it comes down to where and how the work happens. In-person, hands-on and high-stakes work is where AI and robots have made the least headway so far. In the official O*NET survey of people in this job:

• 76% use their hands on tools, objects or controls more than half the time
• 72% say dealing with the public is very or extremely important
• 71% work outdoors in all weather every day

We track 2 sourced company moves that affect this job. Most recent:

• Oct 7, 2026: Just Eat adds robot-only grocery delivery from a Morrisons store (Pilot)
• Jun 5, 2025: Walmart expands drone delivery to 100 stores in five new cities (Rolling out)

On Indeed, job postings in the Driving sector are at 81% of their February 2020 level (all U.S. postings: 104%), down 8.5% from a year earlier, as of Oct 9, 2026. BLS separately expects about 107,000 openings a year in this job through 2035. Across all U.S. postings, 7.3% now mention AI skills. Sector postings cover more than this one job and move for many reasons besides AI.

The median pay is about $44,860 a year ($21.57 an hour), 12% below the median for all U.S. jobs ($50,980). Most people in this job earn between $30,800 and $80,310 a year; that range covers the middle 80%. Pay figures are from BLS, May 2025, and vary a lot by state and employer. Pick a state to compare:

BLS projects growth of 6.3% from 2025 to 2035, compared with 3.5% growth for all jobs. That's about 1.1 million jobs in 2035. It expects about 107,000 openings a year, mostly from people retiring or changing careers. These projections don't single out AI as a cause.

About 983,000 people in the U.S., roughly 0.63% of all workers (BLS, May 2025). That makes it the 38th largest of the 796 jobs on this site. BLS expects about 1.1 million in 2035.

The most common requirement is a high school diploma: about 74% of people in the job said so in the official O*NET survey. O*NET rates the job at level 2 of 5 for preparation, which usually means: high school diploma, some training. Requirements vary by state and employer, especially for licensed work.

These come from the job's official skill ratings and from the tasks that AI and robots touch least today. Building them keeps you strong in the parts of the work that still need a person:

• Skills that matter more here than in most jobs: Operation and Control, Time Management, Monitoring, Reading Comprehension
• Get strong at the parts of the job that stay with people (listed above), which take 1h 31m of a typical shift
• Tools employers list: Microsoft Excel, Microsoft Office software, Microsoft Outlook, Microsoft Windows

These use similar skills, with less of a typical shift touched by AI or robots. Matches come from 109 official ratings of skills, knowledge and work activities, and each needs the same or less preparation unless the official list relates the jobs directly:

• Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers (5h 44m touched, $59k median pay)
• Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity (5h 54m touched, $59k median pay)
• Cleaners of Vehicles and Equipment (1h 11m touched, $36k median pay)

Each task carries its own evidence label. For this job: 6 with robots in real deployments, 7 with no AI or robot evidence found. The minutes per task are estimates, not measured hours, and "no evidence" doesn't prove a task is safe.