Will AI replace computer numerically controlled tool programmers?

Unlikely, though parts of the work are changing. About 1h 27m of an 8-hour shift goes to tasks touched by AI working on its own. The other 6h 33m (82%) stays with people. Separately, BLS expects about 5.9% more of these jobs by 2035 (all jobs: +3.5%).

AI shows up regularly in 2 of 16 tasks, about 1h 27m of a typical shift. The biggest ones:

• Revise programs or tapes to eliminate errors, and retest programs to check that problems have been solved. (58m a shift, AI mostly does it alone)
• Modify existing programs to enhance efficiency. (29m a shift, AI mostly does it alone)

Not in workplaces like this one, based on a 2026 review of robot deployments. 1 more task has only been done in factory setups built around the machine, so it stays with people here.

6h 33m of a typical shift, or 82%, goes to tasks with no AI or robot evidence yet. No AI usage or robot deployment has shown up for these so far. The biggest:

• Write programs in the language of a machine's controller and store programs on media, such as punch tapes, magnetic tapes, or disks. (1h 33m a shift)
• Observe machines on trial runs or conduct computer simulations to ensure that programs and machinery will function properly and produce items that meet specifications. (58m a shift)
• Determine the sequence of machine operations, and select the proper cutting tools needed to machine workpieces into the desired shapes. (52m a shift)
• Analyze job orders, drawings, blueprints, specifications, printed circuit board pattern films, and design data to calculate dimensions, tool selection, machine speeds, and feed rates. (52m a shift)
• Determine reference points, machine cutting paths, or hole locations, and compute angular and linear dimensions, radii, and curvatures. (35m a shift)

Much of it comes down to where and how the work happens. In-person, hands-on and high-stakes work is where AI and robots have made the least headway so far. In the official O*NET survey of people in this job:

• 93% use their hands on tools, objects or controls more than half the time
• 56% talk face to face with others every day

On Indeed, job postings in the Production & Manufacturing sector are at 124% of their February 2020 level (all U.S. postings: 104%), up 12.6% from a year earlier, as of Oct 9, 2026. BLS separately expects about 2,700 openings a year in this job through 2035. Across all U.S. postings, 7.3% now mention AI skills. Sector postings cover more than this one job and move for many reasons besides AI.

The median pay is about $68,120 a year ($32.75 an hour), 34% above the median for all U.S. jobs ($50,980). Most people in this job earn between $47,530 and $100,320 a year; that range covers the middle 80%. Pay figures are from BLS, May 2025, and vary a lot by state and employer. Pick a state to compare:

BLS projects growth of 5.9% from 2025 to 2035, compared with 3.5% growth for all jobs. That's about 30,000 jobs in 2035. It expects about 2,700 openings a year, mostly from people retiring or changing careers. These projections don't single out AI as a cause.

About 29,000 people in the U.S., roughly 0.02% of all workers (BLS, May 2025). That makes it the 487th largest of the 796 jobs on this site. BLS expects about 30,000 in 2035.

The most common requirement is a high school diploma: about 33% of people in the job said so in the official O*NET survey. O*NET rates the job at level 2 of 5 for preparation, which usually means: high school diploma, some training. Requirements vary by state and employer, especially for licensed work.

These come from the job's official skill ratings and from the tasks that AI and robots touch least today. Building them keeps you strong in the parts of the work that still need a person:

• Skills that matter more here than in most jobs: Programming, Troubleshooting, Mathematics, Operation and Control
• Get strong at the parts of the job that stay with people (listed above), which take 6h 33m of a typical shift
• Tools employers list: Microsoft Office software, Microsoft Excel, Dassault Systemes SolidWorks, Autodesk AutoCAD, Extensible markup language XML
• Learn to use AI well on the tasks where it already shows up in this job (listed above)

These use similar skills, with less of a typical shift touched by AI or robots. Matches come from 109 official ratings of skills, knowledge and work activities, and each needs the same or less preparation unless the official list relates the jobs directly:

• Model Makers, Metal and Plastic (0m touched, $63k median pay)
• Robotics Technicians (0m touched, $74k median pay)
• Mechanical Drafters (0m touched, $72k median pay)
• Machinists (29m touched, $59k median pay)

Each task carries its own evidence label. For this job: 2 observed in real AI use, 14 with no AI or robot evidence found. The minutes per task are estimates, not measured hours, and "no evidence" doesn't prove a task is safe.