Will AI replace machinists?

Not on current evidence. Less than 30 minutes of a typical shift goes to tasks that AI or robots are doing today. The other 7h 31m (94%) stays with people. Separately, BLS expects about 1% more of these jobs by 2035 (all jobs: +3.5%).

None of this job's tasks show regular AI use yet. That can mean the work is hands-on or in person, or simply that it rarely comes up in AI usage data.

For some tasks, yes. Robots have done 1 of this job's tasks in workplaces like this one, about 29m of a typical shift. 16 more tasks have only been done in factory setups built around the machine, so they stay with people here. For 3 physical tasks, no robot has shown it can do the work yet.

• Monitor the feed and speed of machines during the machining process. (29m a shift; e.g. TMAC deployed at a customer machine shop (pallet-pool machining centers), in use)

7h 31m of a typical shift, or 94%, goes to tasks with no AI or robot evidence yet. No AI usage or robot deployment has shown up for these so far. The biggest:

• Machine parts to specifications, using machine tools, such as lathes, milling machines, shapers, or grinders. (1h 34m a shift)
• Set up, adjust, or operate basic or specialized machine tools used to perform precision machining operations. (1h 4m a shift)
• Measure, examine, or test completed units to check for defects and ensure conformance to specifications, using precision instruments, such as micrometers. (47m a shift)
• Program computers or electronic instruments, such as numerically controlled machine tools. (35m a shift)
• Study sample parts, blueprints, drawings, or engineering information to determine methods or sequences of operations needed to fabricate products. (29m a shift)

Much of it comes down to where and how the work happens. In-person, hands-on and high-stakes work is where AI and robots have made the least headway so far. In the official O*NET survey of people in this job:

• 96% use their hands on tools, objects or controls more than half the time
• 89% spend more than half the day on their feet
• 78% talk face to face with others every day

We track 2 sourced company moves that affect this job. Most recent:

• Sep 9, 2025: CloudNC says over 1,000 machine shops use its AI CNC programming tool (Rolling out)
• Jun 26, 2025: CloudNC AI writes CNC programs for hundreds of machine shops (Rolling out)

On Indeed, job postings in the Production & Manufacturing sector are at 124% of their February 2020 level (all U.S. postings: 104%), up 12.6% from a year earlier, as of Oct 9, 2026. BLS separately expects about 26,000 openings a year in this job through 2035. Across all U.S. postings, 7.3% now mention AI skills. Sector postings cover more than this one job and move for many reasons besides AI.

The median pay is about $58,750 a year ($28.24 an hour), 15% above the median for all U.S. jobs ($50,980). Most people in this job earn between $39,200 and $80,010 a year; that range covers the middle 80%. Pay figures are from BLS, May 2025, and vary a lot by state and employer. Pick a state to compare:

BLS projects growth of 1% from 2025 to 2035, compared with 3.5% growth for all jobs. That's about 291,000 jobs in 2035. It expects about 26,000 openings a year, mostly from people retiring or changing careers. These projections don't single out AI as a cause.

About 287,000 people in the U.S., roughly 0.18% of all workers (BLS, May 2025). That makes it the 136th largest of the 796 jobs on this site. BLS expects about 291,000 in 2035.

The most common requirement is a high school diploma: about 36% of people in the job said so in the official O*NET survey. O*NET rates the job at level 3 of 5 for preparation, which usually means: vocational school or associate's degree. Requirements vary by state and employer, especially for licensed work.

These come from the job's official skill ratings and from the tasks that AI and robots touch least today. Building them keeps you strong in the parts of the work that still need a person:

• Skills that matter more here than in most jobs: Troubleshooting, Operation and Control, Quality Control Analysis, Operations Monitoring
• Get strong at the parts of the job that stay with people (listed above), which take 7h 31m of a typical shift
• Tools employers list: Autodesk AutoCAD, Dassault Systemes SolidWorks, Microsoft Excel, Microsoft Office software, Microsoft Outlook

These use similar skills. Matches come from 109 official ratings of skills, knowledge and work activities, and each needs the same or less preparation unless the official list relates the jobs directly:

• Textile Cutting Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders (2h 11m touched, $39k median pay)
• Tool and Die Makers (0m touched, $64k median pay)
• Grinding, Lapping, Polishing, and Buffing Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic (0m touched, $47k median pay)
• Patternmakers, Metal and Plastic (0m touched, $58k median pay)
• Molding, Coremaking, and Casting Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic (2h 12m touched, $44k median pay)

Each task carries its own evidence label. For this job: 1 with robots in real deployments, 28 with no AI or robot evidence found. The minutes per task are estimates, not measured hours, and "no evidence" doesn't prove a task is safe.