Will AI replace computer programmers?

Parts of the job are being automated. About 5h 48m of an 8-hour shift goes to tasks that AI or robots already do largely on their own. The rest still needs a person. The other 2h 12m (28%) stays with people. Separately, BLS expects about 7.3% fewer of these jobs by 2035 (all jobs: +3.5%).

AI shows up regularly in 10 of 17 tasks, about 5h 48m of a typical shift. The biggest ones:

• Write, analyze, review, and rewrite programs, using workflow chart and diagram, and applying knowledge of computer capabilities, subject matter, and symbolic logic. (1h 48m a shift, AI mostly does it alone)
• Correct errors by making appropriate changes and rechecking the program to ensure that the desired results are produced. (1h 6m a shift, AI mostly does it alone)
• Perform or direct revision, repair, or expansion of existing programs to increase operating efficiency or adapt to new requirements. (48m a shift, AI mostly does it alone)
• Write, update, and maintain computer programs or software packages to handle specific jobs such as tracking inventory, storing or retrieving data, or controlling other equipment. (42m a shift, AI mostly does it alone)
• Compile and write documentation of program development and subsequent revisions, inserting comments in the coded instructions so others can understand the program. (24m a shift, AI mostly does it alone)

2h 12m of a typical shift, or 28%, goes to tasks with no AI or robot evidence yet. No AI usage or robot deployment has shown up for these so far. The biggest:

• Consult with managerial, engineering, and technical personnel to clarify program intent, identify problems, and suggest changes. (48m a shift)
• Conduct trial runs of programs and software applications to be sure they will produce the desired information and that the instructions are correct. (42m a shift)
• Assign, coordinate, and review work and activities of programming personnel. (12m a shift)
• Develop Web sites. (12m a shift)
• Train subordinates in programming and program coding. (6m a shift)

We track 3 sourced company moves that affect this job. Most recent:

• Aug 12, 2026: Stanford study finds 19% employment gap for young workers in AI-exposed jobs (Forecast)
• Apr 29, 2025: Microsoft says 20% to 30% of its code is written by AI (Rolling out)
• Feb 27, 2025: Salesforce says it will hire no new engineers in 2025 (Plan)

For the 8 tasks in this job where AI shows up and timing data exists, a typical request takes about 7h 9m for a person alone and about 46m with AI. These are Claude's own estimates from real conversations in April and May 2026 (Anthropic Economic Index). They describe single requests, not whole workdays, and time saved on a task doesn't mean jobs are cut. The biggest gaps:

• Write, update, and maintain computer programs or software packages to handle specific jobs such as tracking inventory, storing or retrieving data, or controlling other equipment (about 10h 43m alone, 1h 7m with AI)
• Compile and write documentation of program development and subsequent revisions, inserting comments in the coded instructions so others can understand the program (about 10h 22m alone, 52m with AI)
• Write, analyze, review, and rewrite programs, using workflow chart and diagram, and applying knowledge of computer capabilities, subject matter, and symbolic logic (about 8h 56m alone, 1h 2m with AI)

On Indeed, job postings in the Software Development sector are at 78% of their February 2020 level (all U.S. postings: 104%), up 21.5% from a year earlier, as of Oct 9, 2026. BLS separately expects about 4,400 openings a year in this job through 2035. Across all U.S. postings, 7.3% now mention AI skills. Sector postings cover more than this one job and move for many reasons besides AI.

The median pay is about $100,390 a year ($48.26 an hour), 97% above the median for all U.S. jobs ($50,980). Most people in this job earn between $57,710 and $160,460 a year; that range covers the middle 80%. Pay figures are from BLS, May 2025, and vary a lot by state and employer.

BLS projects a decline of 7.3% from 2025 to 2035, compared with 3.5% growth for all jobs. That's about 103,000 jobs in 2035. Even so, it expects about 4,400 openings a year, mostly from people retiring or changing careers. These projections don't single out AI as a cause.

About 92,000 people in the U.S., roughly 0.06% of all workers (BLS, May 2025). That makes it the 288th largest of the 796 jobs on this site. BLS expects about 103,000 in 2035.

The most common requirement is a bachelor's degree: about 88% of people in the job said so in the official O*NET survey. O*NET rates the job at level 4 of 5 for preparation, which usually means: bachelor's degree. Requirements vary by state and employer, especially for licensed work.

These come from the job's official skill ratings and from the tasks that AI and robots touch least today. Building them keeps you strong in the parts of the work that still need a person:

• Skills that matter more here than in most jobs: Programming, Operations Analysis, Quality Control Analysis, Systems Analysis
• Get strong at the parts of the job that stay with people (listed above), which take 2h 12m of a typical shift
• Tools employers list: Structured query language SQL, SAS, R, Python, Oracle Java
• Learn to use AI well on the tasks where it already shows up in this job (listed above)

These use similar skills, with less of a typical shift touched by AI or robots. Matches come from 109 official ratings of skills, knowledge and work activities, and each needs the same or less preparation unless the official list relates the jobs directly:

• Web Developers (4h 59m touched, $93k median pay)
• Database Architects (5h touched, $140k median pay)
• Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (3h 26m touched, $104k median pay)
• Software Developers (3h 20m touched, $136k median pay)
• Database Administrators (3h 35m touched, $105k median pay)

Each task carries its own evidence label. For this job: 10 observed in real AI use, 7 with no AI or robot evidence found. The minutes per task are estimates, not measured hours, and "no evidence" doesn't prove a task is safe.