Will AI replace first-line supervisors of correctional officers?

Unlikely, though parts of the work are changing. About 1h 31m of an 8-hour shift goes to tasks touched by AI that people use as a helper. The breakdown: 1h 8m done by people with AI help, 23m that AI mostly does alone. The other 6h 29m (81%) stays with people. Separately, BLS expects about 2.5% fewer of these jobs by 2035 (all jobs: +3.5%).

AI shows up regularly in 2 of 23 tasks, about 1h 31m of a typical shift. The biggest ones:

• Maintain knowledge of, comply with, and enforce all institutional policies, rules, procedures, and regulations. (23m a shift, AI mostly does it alone)
• Complete administrative paperwork or supervise the preparation or maintenance of records, forms, or reports. (1h 8m a shift, people use AI to help)

Not in workplaces like this one, based on a 2026 review of robot deployments. 1 more task has only been done in factory setups built around the machine, so it stays with people here. For 9 physical tasks, no robot has shown it can do the work yet.

6h 29m of a typical shift, or 81%, goes to tasks with no AI or robot evidence yet. No AI usage or robot deployment has shown up for these so far. The biggest:

• Supervise and direct the work of correctional officers to ensure the safe custody, discipline, and welfare of inmates. (1h 19m a shift)
• Maintain order, discipline, and security within assigned areas in accordance with relevant rules, regulations, policies, and laws. (1h 8m a shift)
• Monitor behavior of subordinates to ensure alert, courteous, and professional behavior toward inmates, parolees, fellow employees, visitors, and the public. (28m a shift)
• Take, receive, or check periodic inmate counts. (23m a shift)
• Instruct employees or provide on-the-job training. (23m a shift)

Much of it comes down to where and how the work happens. In-person, hands-on and high-stakes work is where AI and robots have made the least headway so far. In the official O*NET survey of people in this job:

• 100% carry high or very high responsibility for other workers' safety
• 85% handle conflict at least once a week
• 80% deal with violent or aggressive people at least weekly

On Indeed, job postings in the Security & Public Safety sector are at 119% of their February 2020 level (all U.S. postings: 104%), up 4.4% from a year earlier, as of Oct 9, 2026. BLS separately expects about 3,700 openings a year in this job through 2035. Across all U.S. postings, 7.3% now mention AI skills. Sector postings cover more than this one job and move for many reasons besides AI.

The median pay is about $77,970 a year ($37.49 an hour), 53% above the median for all U.S. jobs ($50,980). Most people in this job earn between $52,330 and $127,780 a year; that range covers the middle 80%. Pay figures are from BLS, May 2025, and vary a lot by state and employer. Pick a state to compare:

BLS projects a decline of 2.5% from 2025 to 2035, compared with 3.5% growth for all jobs. That's about 55,000 jobs in 2035. Even so, it expects about 3,700 openings a year, mostly from people retiring or changing careers. These projections don't single out AI as a cause.

About 53,000 people in the U.S., roughly 0.03% of all workers (BLS, May 2025). That makes it the 377th largest of the 796 jobs on this site. BLS expects about 55,000 in 2035.

The most common requirement is a high school diploma: about 59% of people in the job said so in the official O*NET survey. O*NET rates the job at level 3 of 5 for preparation, which usually means: vocational school or associate's degree. Requirements vary by state and employer, especially for licensed work.

These come from the job's official skill ratings and from the tasks that AI and robots touch least today. Building them keeps you strong in the parts of the work that still need a person:

• Skills that matter more here than in most jobs: Management of Personnel Resources, Coordination, Monitoring, Negotiation
• Get strong at the parts of the job that stay with people (listed above), which take 6h 29m of a typical shift
• Tools employers list: Microsoft Office software, Microsoft Access, Microsoft Excel, Microsoft Outlook, Microsoft PowerPoint
• Learn to use AI well on the tasks where it already shows up in this job (listed above)

These use similar skills, with less of a typical shift touched by AI or robots. Matches come from 109 official ratings of skills, knowledge and work activities, and each needs the same or less preparation unless the official list relates the jobs directly:

• First-Line Supervisors of Police and Detectives (0m touched, $106k median pay)
• Correctional Officers and Jailers (5m touched, $59k median pay)
• Probation Officers and Correctional Treatment Specialists (0m touched, $66k median pay)

Each task carries its own evidence label. For this job: 2 observed in real AI use, 21 with no AI or robot evidence found. The minutes per task are estimates, not measured hours, and "no evidence" doesn't prove a task is safe.