Will AI replace carpenters?

Not on current evidence. Less than 30 minutes of a typical shift goes to tasks that AI or robots are doing today. The other 7h 54m (99%) stays with people. Separately, BLS expects about 3.9% more of these jobs by 2035 (all jobs: +3.5%).

None of this job's tasks show regular AI use yet. That can mean the work is hands-on or in person, or simply that it rarely comes up in AI usage data.

For some tasks, yes. Robots have done 1 of this job's tasks in workplaces like this one, about 6m of a typical shift. 17 more tasks have only been done in factory setups built around the machine, so they stay with people here. For 5 physical tasks, no robot has shown it can do the work yet.

• Bore boltholes in timber, masonry or concrete walls, using power drill. (6m a shift; e.g. Hilti Jaibot, in use)

7h 54m of a typical shift, or 99%, goes to tasks with no AI or robot evidence yet. No AI usage or robot deployment has shown up for these so far. The biggest:

• Assemble and fasten materials to make frameworks or props, using hand tools and wood screws, nails, dowel pins, or glue. (53m a shift)
• Shape or cut materials to specified measurements, using hand tools, machines, or power saws. (53m a shift)
• Install structures or fixtures, such as windows, frames, floorings, trim, or hardware, using carpenters' hand or power tools. (53m a shift)
• Measure and mark cutting lines on materials, using a ruler, pencil, chalk, and marking gauge. (47m a shift)
• Follow established safety rules and regulations and maintain a safe and clean environment. (29m a shift)

Much of it comes down to where and how the work happens. In-person, hands-on and high-stakes work is where AI and robots have made the least headway so far. In the official O*NET survey of people in this job:

• 90% spend more than half the day on their feet
• 82% carry high or very high responsibility for other workers' safety
• 81% work at arm's length or closer to other people

We track 1 sourced company move that affects this job. Most recent:

• May 29, 2026: Reframe Systems uses a robotic arm to build home wall panels (Pilot)

On Indeed, job postings in the Construction sector are at 129% of their February 2020 level (all U.S. postings: 104%), up 6.4% from a year earlier, as of Oct 9, 2026. BLS separately expects about 63,000 openings a year in this job through 2035. Across all U.S. postings, 7.3% now mention AI skills. Sector postings cover more than this one job and move for many reasons besides AI.

The median pay is about $60,580 a year ($29.12 an hour), 19% above the median for all U.S. jobs ($50,980). Most people in this job earn between $40,410 and $99,910 a year; that range covers the middle 80%. Pay figures are from BLS, May 2025, and vary a lot by state and employer. Pick a state to compare:

BLS projects growth of 3.9% from 2025 to 2035, compared with 3.5% growth for all jobs. That's about 925,000 jobs in 2035. It expects about 63,000 openings a year, mostly from people retiring or changing careers. These projections don't single out AI as a cause.

About 670,000 people in the U.S., roughly 0.43% of all workers (BLS, May 2025). That makes it the 60th largest of the 796 jobs on this site. BLS expects about 925,000 in 2035.

The most common requirement is a high school diploma: about 52% of people in the job said so in the official O*NET survey. O*NET rates the job at level 2 of 5 for preparation, which usually means: high school diploma, some training. Requirements vary by state and employer, especially for licensed work.

These come from the job's official skill ratings and from the tasks that AI and robots touch least today. Building them keeps you strong in the parts of the work that still need a person:

• Skills that matter more here than in most jobs: Quality Control Analysis, Mathematics, Coordination, Monitoring
• Get strong at the parts of the job that stay with people (listed above), which take 7h 54m of a typical shift
• Tools employers list: Intuit QuickBooks, Microsoft Excel, Microsoft Office software, Microsoft Windows, Microsoft Word

Yes. Occupational experts recently added these to the official task list, a sign of how the work itself is shifting. New tasks aren't rated for AI or robots yet:

• Use drones for site surveying and to inspect hard-to-reach areas of a structure.

These use similar skills. Matches come from 109 official ratings of skills, knowledge and work activities, and each needs the same or less preparation unless the official list relates the jobs directly:

• Solar Photovoltaic Installers (12m touched, $53k median pay)
• Weatherization Installers and Technicians (0m touched, $50k median pay)
• Helpers for Electricians (23m touched, $43k median pay)
• Rail-Track Laying and Maintenance Equipment Operators (2h 31m touched, $70k median pay)
• Brickmasons and Blockmasons (2h 47m touched, $62k median pay)

Each task carries its own evidence label. For this job: 1 with robots in real deployments, 28 with no AI or robot evidence found. The minutes per task are estimates, not measured hours, and "no evidence" doesn't prove a task is safe.