Will AI replace school bus drivers?

Some tasks are already being done by AI or machines; the rest still needs a person. About 2h 56m of a typical shift is made up of tasks that AI or robots have done on their own in real use somewhere. That doesn't mean those hours are automated in a typical workplace. The other 5h 4m (63%) stays with people. Separately, BLS expects about 0.7% more of these jobs by 2035 (all jobs: +3.5%).

None of this job's tasks show regular AI use yet. That can mean the work is hands-on or in person, or simply that it rarely comes up in AI usage data.

For some tasks, yes. Robots have done 5 of this job's tasks in workplaces like this one, about 2h 56m of a typical shift. 2 more tasks have only been done in factory setups built around the machine, so they stay with people here. For 2 physical tasks, no robot has shown it can do the work yet.

• Drive gasoline, diesel, or electrically powered multi-passenger vehicles to transport students between neighborhoods, schools, and school activities. (1h 28m a shift; e.g. WeRide Robobus at Resorts World Sentosa, in use)
• Comply with traffic regulations to operate vehicles in a safe and courteous manner. (29m a shift; e.g. Waymo Driver (rider-only robotaxi service), in use)
• Follow safety rules as students board and exit buses or cross streets near bus stops. (29m a shift; e.g. WeRide Robobus, in use)
• Keep bus interiors clean for students. (20m a shift; e.g. Downer/IISRI autonomous rollingstock floor cleaning robot, shown in a demo)

5h 4m of a typical shift, or 63%, goes to tasks with no AI or robot evidence yet. No AI usage or robot deployment has shown up for these so far. The biggest:

• Pick up and drop off students at regularly scheduled neighborhood locations, following strict time schedules. (2h 37m a shift)
• Check the condition of a vehicle's tires, brakes, windshield wipers, lights, oil, fuel, water, and safety equipment to ensure that everything is in working order. (39m a shift)
• Maintain order among students during trips to ensure safety. (20m a shift)
• Report any bus malfunctions or needed repairs. (10m a shift)
• Prepare and submit reports that may include the number of students or trips, hours worked, mileage, or fuel consumption. (10m a shift)

Much of it comes down to where and how the work happens. In-person, hands-on and high-stakes work is where AI and robots have made the least headway so far. In the official O*NET survey of people in this job:

• 91% work at arm's length or closer to other people
• 80% use their hands on tools, objects or controls more than half the time
• 69% work outdoors in all weather every day

We track 1 sourced company move that affects this job. Most recent:

• Sep 17, 2025: HopSkipDrive pairs RouteWise AI bus routing with small-vehicle drivers (Announced)

On Indeed, job postings in the Driving sector are at 81% of their February 2020 level (all U.S. postings: 104%), down 8.5% from a year earlier, as of Oct 9, 2026. BLS separately expects about 57,000 openings a year in this job through 2035. Across all U.S. postings, 7.3% now mention AI skills. Sector postings cover more than this one job and move for many reasons besides AI.

The median pay is about $47,920 a year ($23.04 an hour), 6% below the median for all U.S. jobs ($50,980). Most people in this job earn between $29,240 and $65,730 a year; that range covers the middle 80%. Pay figures are from BLS, May 2025, and vary a lot by state and employer. Pick a state to compare:

BLS projects growth of 0.7% from 2025 to 2035, compared with 3.5% growth for all jobs. That's about 400,000 jobs in 2035. It expects about 57,000 openings a year, mostly from people retiring or changing careers. These projections don't single out AI as a cause.

About 403,000 people in the U.S., roughly 0.26% of all workers (BLS, May 2025). That makes it the 101st largest of the 796 jobs on this site. BLS expects about 400,000 in 2035.

The most common requirement is a high school diploma: about 59% of people in the job said so in the official O*NET survey. O*NET rates the job at level 2 of 5 for preparation, which usually means: high school diploma, some training. Requirements vary by state and employer, especially for licensed work.

These come from the job's official skill ratings and from the tasks that AI and robots touch least today. Building them keeps you strong in the parts of the work that still need a person:

• Skills that matter more here than in most jobs: Operations Monitoring, Monitoring, Social Perceptiveness, Service Orientation
• Get strong at the parts of the job that stay with people (listed above), which take 5h 4m of a typical shift
• Tools employers list: Microsoft Windows

These use similar skills. Matches come from 109 official ratings of skills, knowledge and work activities, and each needs the same or less preparation unless the official list relates the jobs directly:

• Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity (5h 54m touched, $59k median pay)
• Railroad Brake, Signal, and Switch Operators and Locomotive Firers (1h 4m touched, $69k median pay)
• Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers (5h 44m touched, $59k median pay)
• Subway and Streetcar Operators (5h 40m touched, $86k median pay)

Each task carries its own evidence label. For this job: 4 with robots in real deployments, 1 with robots sold or demonstrated, 12 with no AI or robot evidence found. The minutes per task are estimates, not measured hours, and "no evidence" doesn't prove a task is safe.