Will AI replace sheet metal workers?

Not on current evidence. Less than 30 minutes of a typical shift goes to tasks that AI or robots are doing today. The other 7h 43m (96%) stays with people. Separately, BLS expects about 2.5% more of these jobs by 2035 (all jobs: +3.5%).

None of this job's tasks show regular AI use yet. That can mean the work is hands-on or in person, or simply that it rarely comes up in AI usage data.

For some tasks, yes. Robots have done 1 of this job's tasks in workplaces like this one, about 17m of a typical shift. 11 more tasks have only been done in factory setups built around the machine, so they stay with people here. For 3 physical tasks, no robot has shown it can do the work yet.

• Transport prefabricated parts to construction sites for assembly and installation. (17m a shift; e.g. Seegrid Palion Lift RS1 / CR1 autonomous lift trucks, in use)

7h 43m of a typical shift, or 96%, goes to tasks with no AI or robot evidence yet. No AI usage or robot deployment has shown up for these so far. The biggest:

• Install assemblies, such as flashing, pipes, tubes, heating and air conditioning ducts, furnace casings, rain gutters, or downspouts in supportive frameworks. (1h 31m a shift)
• Fasten seams or joints together with welds, bolts, cement, rivets, solder, caulks, metal drive clips, or bonds to assemble components into products or to repair sheet metal items. (1h 9m a shift)
• Fabricate ducts for high efficiency heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems to maximize efficiency of systems. (57m a shift)
• Lay out, measure, and mark dimensions and reference lines on material, such as roofing panels, using calculators, scribes, dividers, squares, or rulers. (40m a shift)
• Fabricate or alter parts at construction sites, using shears, hammers, punches, or drills. (34m a shift)

Part of the answer is the setting, not just the tasks. Work that is in person, hands on or high stakes is where AI and robots have made the least headway so far. In the official O*NET survey of people in this job:

• 98% spend more than half the day on their feet
• 94% use their hands on tools, objects or controls more than half the time
• 72% carry high or very high responsibility for other workers' safety

On Indeed, job postings in the Construction sector are at 129% of their February 2020 level (all U.S. postings: 104%), up 6.4% from a year earlier, as of Oct 9, 2026. BLS separately expects about 9,800 openings a year in this job through 2035. Across all U.S. postings, 7.3% now mention AI skills. Sector postings cover more than this one job and move for many reasons besides AI.

The median pay is about $61,800 a year ($29.71 an hour), 21% above the median for all U.S. jobs ($50,980). Most people in this job earn between $38,630 and $105,650 a year; that range covers the middle 80%. Pay figures are from BLS, May 2025, and vary a lot by state and employer. Pick a state to compare:

BLS projects growth of 2.5% from 2025 to 2035, compared with 3.5% growth for all jobs. That's about 134,000 jobs in 2035. It expects about 9,800 openings a year, mostly from people retiring or changing careers. These projections don't single out AI as a cause.

About 120,000 people in the U.S., roughly 0.08% of all workers (BLS, May 2025). That makes it the 247th largest of the 796 jobs on this site. BLS expects about 134,000 in 2035.

The most common requirement is a high school diploma: about 49% of people in the job said so in the official O*NET survey. O*NET rates the job at level 2 of 5 for preparation, which usually means: high school diploma, some training. Requirements vary by state and employer, especially for licensed work.

These come from the job's official skill ratings and from the tasks that AI and robots touch least today. Building them keeps you strong in the parts of the work that still need a person:

• Skills that matter more here than in most jobs: Mathematics, Coordination, Time Management, Monitoring
• Get strong at the parts of the job that stay with people (listed above), which take 7h 43m of a typical shift
• Tools employers list: Autodesk AutoCAD, Microsoft Excel, Microsoft Office software, Microsoft Windows, Microsoft Word

These use similar skills. Matches come from 109 official ratings of skills, knowledge and work activities, and each needs the same or less preparation unless the official list relates the jobs directly:

• Helpers for Electricians (23m touched, $43k median pay)
• Layout Workers, Metal and Plastic (0m touched, $64k median pay)

Each task carries its own evidence label. For this job: 1 with robots in real deployments, 18 with no AI or robot evidence found. The minutes per task are estimates, not measured hours, and "no evidence" doesn't prove a task is safe.