Will AI replace administrative services managers?

Not on current evidence. Less than 30 minutes of a typical shift goes to tasks that AI or robots are doing today. The other 8h (100%) stays with people. Separately, BLS expects about 5.2% more of these jobs by 2035 (all jobs: +3.5%).

None of this job's tasks show regular AI use yet. That can mean the work is hands-on or in person, or simply that it rarely comes up in AI usage data.

8h of a typical shift, or 100%, goes to tasks with no AI or robot evidence yet. No AI usage or robot deployment has shown up for these so far. The biggest:

• Direct or coordinate the supportive services department of a business, agency, or organization. (57m a shift)
• Supervise administrative staff and provide training and orientation to new staff. (46m a shift)
• Prepare and review operational reports and schedules to ensure accuracy and efficiency. (40m a shift)
• Plan, administer, and control budgets for contracts, equipment, and supplies. (34m a shift)
• Communicate with and provide guidance for external vendors and service providers to ensure the organization, department, or work unit's business needs are met. (34m a shift)

Much of it comes down to where and how the work happens. In-person, hands-on and high-stakes work is where AI and robots have made the least headway so far. In the official O*NET survey of people in this job:

• 90% talk face to face with others every day
• 76% say dealing with the public is very or extremely important
• 68% carry high or very high responsibility for other workers' safety

On Indeed, job postings in the Management sector are at 104% of their February 2020 level (all U.S. postings: 104%), up 8.3% from a year earlier, as of Oct 9, 2026. BLS separately expects about 22,000 openings a year in this job through 2035. Across all U.S. postings, 7.3% now mention AI skills. Sector postings cover more than this one job and move for many reasons besides AI.

The median pay is about $114,130 a year ($54.87 an hour), 124% above the median for all U.S. jobs ($50,980). Most people in this job earn between $67,100 and $207,720 a year; that range covers the middle 80%. Pay figures are from BLS, May 2025, and vary a lot by state and employer. Pick a state to compare:

BLS projects growth of 5.2% from 2025 to 2035, compared with 3.5% growth for all jobs. That's about 293,000 jobs in 2035. It expects about 22,000 openings a year, mostly from people retiring or changing careers. These projections don't single out AI as a cause.

About 264,000 people in the U.S., roughly 0.17% of all workers (BLS, May 2025). That makes it the 145th largest of the 796 jobs on this site. BLS expects about 293,000 in 2035.

The most common requirement is a high school diploma: about 34% of people in the job said so in the official O*NET survey. O*NET rates the job at level 3 of 5 for preparation, which usually means: vocational school or associate's degree. Requirements vary by state and employer, especially for licensed work.

These come from the job's official skill ratings and from the tasks that AI and robots touch least today. Building them keeps you strong in the parts of the work that still need a person:

• Skills that matter more here than in most jobs: Time Management, Negotiation, Coordination, Management of Personnel Resources
• Get strong at the parts of the job that stay with people (listed above), which take 8h of a typical shift
• Tools employers list: Microsoft Word, Microsoft PowerPoint, Microsoft Outlook, Microsoft Office software, Microsoft Excel

These use similar skills. Matches come from 109 official ratings of skills, knowledge and work activities, and each needs the same or less preparation unless the official list relates the jobs directly:

• Postmasters and Mail Superintendents (55m touched, $97k median pay)
• General and Operations Managers (1h 14m touched, $106k median pay)
• First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers (1h 53m touched, $70k median pay)
• Gambling Managers (45m touched, $93k median pay)
• Spa Managers (2h 55m touched, $70k median pay)

Each task carries its own evidence label. For this job: 18 with no AI or robot evidence found. The minutes per task are estimates, not measured hours, and "no evidence" doesn't prove a task is safe.