Will AI replace pediatric surgeons?

Not on current evidence. Less than 30 minutes of a typical shift goes to tasks that AI or robots are doing today. The other 8h (100%) stays with people. Separately, BLS expects about 2% more of these jobs by 2035 (all jobs: +3.5%).

None of this job's tasks show regular AI use yet. That can mean the work is hands-on or in person, or simply that it rarely comes up in AI usage data.

Not in workplaces like this one, based on a 2026 review of robot deployments. For 9 physical tasks, no robot has shown it can do the work yet.

8h of a typical shift, or 100%, goes to tasks with no AI or robot evidence yet. No AI usage or robot deployment has shown up for these so far. The biggest:

• Operate on fetuses, infants, children, and adolescents to correct deformities, repair injuries, prevent and treat diseases, or improve or restore patients' functions. (2h 21m a shift)
• Monitor patient's recovery, making follow-up visits and using postoperative assessment techniques, such as blood and imaging tests. (50m a shift)
• Examine fetuses, infants, children, and adolescents, and diagnose health issues to determine need for intervention, such as surgery. (33m a shift)
• Prepare case histories. (33m a shift)
• Analyze patient's medical history, medication allergies, physical condition, and examination results to verify operation's necessity and to determine best procedure. (25m a shift)

On Indeed, job postings in the Physicians & Surgeons sector are at 202% of their February 2020 level (all U.S. postings: 104%), up 8.8% from a year earlier, as of Oct 9, 2026. Across all U.S. postings, 7.3% now mention AI skills. Sector postings cover more than this one job and move for many reasons besides AI.

The median pay is about $559,030 a year ($268.76 an hour), 997% above the median for all U.S. jobs ($50,980). Most people in this job earn between $215,410 and $726,660 or more a year; that range covers the middle 80%. Pay figures are from BLS, May 2025, and vary a lot by state and employer. Pick a state to compare:

BLS projects growth of 2% from 2025 to 2035, compared with 3.5% growth for all jobs. That's about 1,300 jobs in 2035. These projections don't single out AI as a cause.

About 1,190 people in the U.S., roughly 0.00% of all workers (BLS, May 2025). That makes it the 786th largest of the 796 jobs on this site. BLS expects about 1,300 in 2035.

O*NET rates the job at level 5 of 5 for preparation, which usually means: graduate degree. Requirements vary by state and employer, especially for licensed work.

These come from the job's official skill ratings and from the tasks that AI and robots touch least today. Building them keeps you strong in the parts of the work that still need a person:

• Get strong at the parts of the job that stay with people (listed above), which take 8h of a typical shift
• Tools employers list: Epic Systems, MEDITECH software, Microsoft Windows

These use similar skills. Matches come from 109 official ratings of skills, knowledge and work activities, and each needs the same or less preparation unless the official list relates the jobs directly:

• Orthopedic Surgeons (0m touched, $359k median pay)
• Ophthalmologists (44m touched, $300k median pay)
• Urologists (1h 17m touched, $266k median pay)
• Anesthesiologists (57m touched, $391k median pay)
• Dermatologists (1h 10m touched, $329k median pay)

Each task carries its own evidence label. For this job: 18 with no AI or robot evidence found. The minutes per task are estimates, not measured hours, and "no evidence" doesn't prove a task is safe.