Will AI replace ophthalmologists?

Unlikely, though parts of the work are changing. About 44m of an 8-hour shift goes to tasks touched by AI that people use as a helper. The other 7h 16m (91%) stays with people. Separately, BLS expects about 4.5% more of these jobs by 2035 (all jobs: +3.5%).

AI shows up regularly in 1 of 18 tasks, about 44m of a typical shift. The biggest ones:

• Document or evaluate patients' medical histories. (44m a shift, people use AI to help)

Not in workplaces like this one, based on a 2026 review of robot deployments. 1 more task has only been done in factory setups built around the machine, so it stays with people here. For 7 physical tasks, no robot has shown it can do the work yet.

7h 16m of a typical shift, or 91%, goes to tasks with no AI or robot evidence yet. No AI usage or robot deployment has shown up for these so far. The biggest:

• Perform comprehensive examinations of the visual system to determine the nature or extent of ocular disorders. (1h 27m a shift)
• Perform ophthalmic surgeries such as cataract, glaucoma, refractive, corneal, vitro-retinal, eye muscle, or oculoplastic surgeries. (1h 8m a shift)
• Diagnose or treat injuries, disorders, or diseases of the eye and eye structures including the cornea, sclera, conjunctiva, or eyelids. (53m a shift)
• Perform, order, or interpret the results of diagnostic or clinical tests. (39m a shift)
• Provide or direct the provision of postoperative care. (29m a shift)

Much of it comes down to where and how the work happens. In-person, hands-on and high-stakes work is where AI and robots have made the least headway so far. In the official O*NET survey of people in this job:

• 100% work at arm's length or closer to other people
• 100% say a mistake would be very or extremely serious
• 99% say dealing with the public is very or extremely important

On Indeed, job postings in the Physicians & Surgeons sector are at 202% of their February 2020 level (all U.S. postings: 104%), up 8.8% from a year earlier, as of Oct 9, 2026. BLS separately expects about 200 openings a year in this job through 2035. Across all U.S. postings, 7.3% now mention AI skills. Sector postings cover more than this one job and move for many reasons besides AI.

The median pay is about $300,080 a year ($144.27 an hour), 489% above the median for all U.S. jobs ($50,980). Most people in this job earn between $100,180 and $489,710 or more a year; that range covers the middle 80%. Pay figures are from BLS, May 2025, and vary a lot by state and employer. Pick a state to compare:

BLS projects growth of 4.5% from 2025 to 2035, compared with 3.5% growth for all jobs. That's about 10,000 jobs in 2035. It expects about 200 openings a year, mostly from people retiring or changing careers. These projections don't single out AI as a cause.

About 8,950 people in the U.S., roughly 0.01% of all workers (BLS, May 2025). That makes it the 677th largest of the 796 jobs on this site. BLS expects about 10,000 in 2035.

The most common requirement is post-doctoral training: about 42% of people in the job said so in the official O*NET survey. O*NET rates the job at level 5 of 5 for preparation, which usually means: graduate degree. Requirements vary by state and employer, especially for licensed work.

These come from the job's official skill ratings and from the tasks that AI and robots touch least today. Building them keeps you strong in the parts of the work that still need a person:

• Skills that matter more here than in most jobs: Time Management, Science, Monitoring, Service Orientation
• Get strong at the parts of the job that stay with people (listed above), which take 7h 16m of a typical shift
• Tools employers list: Epic Systems, eClinicalWorks EHR software, Microsoft Excel, Microsoft Word
• Learn to use AI well on the tasks where it already shows up in this job (listed above)

These use similar skills, with less of a typical shift touched by AI or robots. Matches come from 109 official ratings of skills, knowledge and work activities, and each needs the same or less preparation unless the official list relates the jobs directly:

• Sports Medicine Physicians (0m touched, $266k median pay)
• Nurse Anesthetists (0m touched, $237k median pay)
• Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons (0m touched, $352k median pay)
• Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation Physicians (0m touched, $266k median pay)
• Hospitalists (0m touched, $266k median pay)

Each task carries its own evidence label. For this job: 1 observed in real AI use, 17 with no AI or robot evidence found. The minutes per task are estimates, not measured hours, and "no evidence" doesn't prove a task is safe.